Floydada, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

970
FXUS64 KLUB 241105
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 558 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist
   through the early morning hours Wednesday into the afternoon.
- Much cooler this afternoon with highs slightly below seasonal
   normals.
- Dry and warm conditions are forecast through the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Current water vapor imagery depicts the positively oriented upper
level shortwave trough extending from the eastern Rockies into the
Upper Midwest, while the associated closed low remains centered
across portions of the Central Plains. This shortwave will continue
to progress eastward, in doing so the associated H5 +50kt jet will
translate through the region, placing the FA within the right
entrance region of the jet through the early morning hours
Wednesday. Similar to previous forecast, this set up has not favored
the moisture return we would have loved to see. However, notable
moisture associated this system has been enough to generate showers
and thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico already as of 9 PM
Tuesday. In fact, the 00Z MAF upper air sounding shows a modest
moisture column within the midlevels. As well as forecast soundings
from the NAM, HRRR, and RAP showing a similar moisture setup across
our area as well. All this to say, given the steering flow we can
expect these showers and thunderstorms to continue their eastward
movement towards the FA over the next several hours with additional
rounds of showers and thunderstorms continuing through the early
morning hours Wednesday as favorable jet dynamics remains overhead.
Expect these showers and thunderstorms to wane in coverage as we
reach daybreak as we begin to lose lift provided from the system as
it ejects out of the region. The overall severe threat continues to
remain low with little instability at play and storm motions
expected to remain quick limiting the flooding concerns overnight.
Through the early morning hours we will begin to see the secondary
push of cooler air as the surface high surges southward. Not only
will this bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air but it will also
lead to a brief period of breezy northerly winds with WTM showing
wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph behind this boundary across the OK/TX
Panhandles. Throughout the rest of the day drying conditions will
prevail with fall-like temperatures in store thanks to the CAA
funneling in from the north as winds remain northerly through the
day. Expect daytime daytime highs to range from the mid 70s to mid
80s, with the hottest temperatures expected off the Caprock.
Wednesday night the quiet conditions will continue with calm winds
allowing for max radiational cooling and lows dipping into the upper
40s to upper 50s across the FA. Time to dust that jacket off because
fall has arrived in West Texas, maybe... actually don`t quote me on
that quite yet.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Not much of a change to the longer term forecast this morning with
the main theme being dry and quiet weather through the end of the
work week. However, things begin to change towards the weekend as
some areas across the FA may see another shot of precipitation. By
the start of the period the H5 ridge across the Desert Southwest
will continue to build while slowly tracking east towards the region
as an upper level trough and associated low spirals onshore the
southern California coastline. Ahead of this system a lee side low
will develop, establishing southwest flow aloft across much of the
West Texas region. As a result, we will begin to see a subtle
warming trend Thursday into the weekend Friday as warm southerly
flow prevails and thickness values begin to increase. Expect highs
Thursday to climb into the low to mid 80s area-wide and into the
upper 80s to 90s through Saturday. Models continue to differ in the
overall evolution of the upper level trough and associated low, but
one thing they are in agreement on is the deamplification of the
trough as a stronger wave moves into the PacNW. Ensembles continue
to indicate with the southwesterly return flow aloft that some areas
across our most western columns of counties could see isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms although there has been a drying
trend in recent model runs. Due to the uncertainty and the fact this
system is several days out will run with the NBM mentionable PoPs at
this time but they will likely need to be adjusted in the future if
this trend continues. Along with precipitation, there is a hint at
temperatures dropping a few degrees as an associated front tries to
push through but most models wash the front out across the northern
Texas Panhandle at this time. Despite this, surface winds becoming
more upslope oriented should help keep temperatures at least one to
two degrees cooler Sunday through the start of next week as
thickness values decrease with the shortwave ejecting to our
north.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...51

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion