Forgan, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

852
FXUS64 KAMA 071136
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
636 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- Isolated thunderstorms are possible today-tonight, as well as
  Monday. A few storms on might be strong with hail and winds
  being the primary hazards.
- Warming temperatures are expected during the work week with
  highs increasing back near to slightly above average.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Recent downward trends in precipitation chances for the region have
continued, but western portions of the Panhandles still need to be
on guard for thunderstorm potential later this afternoon-evening.
That message rings true for Monday as well, but with focus shifting
to the eastern Panhandles. Even though chances for storms to develop
in our forecast area are only 20-30%, any storm that can develop
will have favorable conditions to become strong to severe.
Satellite and mesoanalysis tonight show northwest flow aloft over
the region, with a broad shortwave situated over the Sangre de
Cristo mountains of northern NM. Convection associated with this
disturbance is expected to die before it reaches the Panhandles
overnight as models depict the system diminishing with time. Through
the day, temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with
10-20 mph southerly winds advecting dew pts in the 50s to low 60s.
This will allow a corridor of moderate instability of 1000-2000 J/kg
CAPE to build across eastern NM to the western TX Panhandle. By the
time the weakened shortwave arrives, this lifting mechanism may
still be enough to generate thunderstorms from the high plains of NM
and CO, but activity could struggle to survive as it loses better
instability while moving east-southeast. However, if this activity
is able to dive south and maintain its fuel source, 30-40kt bulk
shear values could also help storms reach the western Panhandles.
There`s still a camp of CAMs providing a contingency for this
scenario, which lends enough confidence to maintain 20-30% POPs in
the forecast. Overall though, highest confidence in storms lies
outside of our CWA.
Overnight Sunday into Monday morning, models depict another
shortwave dropping south from the central Great Plains towards the
Panhandles. At the sfc, aforementioned southerly winds along with a
30-40 kt 850mb LLJ will continue to improve moisture quality,
especially to the eastern Panhandles. Latest guidance suggest this
will help initiate a band of scattered showers and storms through
the early morning hours, possibly as far east as the central
Panhandles depending on placement of the upper level disturbance as
well as any potential outflow boundaries. Depending on how well the
atmosphere recovers through the day, another round of thunderstorms
may develop Mon afternoon-evening along a sfc trough. After highs
climbing back to the 80s to near 90, similar amounts of instability
to today should materialize, along with ample shear values as well.
Strong to severe convection cannot be ruled out should it even come
to fruition. Rich theta-e content being pumped into these showers
and storms would support locally heavy rainfall, with 10-20%
probabilities to exceed 0.5" of accumulated rain. To reiterate
though, there are several factors that could cause rain and storms
to miss a vast majority of the Panhandles over the next couple of
days, but any storms that do happen could be marginally impactful.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
By Tuesday, models have shifted into better agreement that ridging
will begin to amplify and gradually translate eastward over the
region. Associated height rises and warming 850mb temps spell the
return of highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through mid week.
Ridging should further amplify through the week as we remain
sandwiched between troughing to our east and a closed low churning
over the Pacific NW. This pattern is generally unfavorable for
precipitation, as is reflected by NBM POPs 

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion