Fort Davis, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

941
FXUS64 KMAF 281930
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
230 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 153 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
  this afternoon and evening across locations west of the Pecos
  River.
- Showers and storms could produce heavy rainfall, which may lead
  to instances of flash flooding over portions of southeast New
  Mexico, the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Van Horn Corridor,
  and Marfa Plateau, especially during the afternoon and evening
  hours.
- A warmer and drier pattern sets up later this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Current radar shows scattered showers and thunderstorms from
southeastern New Mexico to the Davis Mountains. A few cells
briefly become strong before diminishing in intensity again so it
appears shear is not quite adequate for severe storms. In
addition, so far cells have been showing enough speed to prevent
heavy rainfall amounts and a widespread flash flood threat.
However a few storms in the mountains are redeveloping in the same
place and that could lead to isolated flash flooding. Later this
evening there may also be cell training occurring (repeated
rainfall over the same area) that could cause a flash flood threat
so the watch will remain in effect. Radar trends and hi-res model
data indicate convection will not stray too far to the east and
PoPs quickly drop east of the Pecos River.
The upper trough causing the instability and convection today
moves east into the Rockies tomorrow bringing an end to rain
chances. Showers do not move east with the trough because mid
level moisture remains to the west causing a dry trough passage in
the Permian Basin. A long low level fetch of cool gulf air brings
temperatures down a few degrees with highs ranging from the upper
70s to mid 80s making Monday the coolest day of the upcoming weak.
Hennig
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Ridging associated with a high over northern Mexico gradually
builds north this week keeping us dry and nudging highs back into
the upper 80s to mid 90s area wide. These values are about 5 to 10
degrees above normal and a little reminder that we are not that
far removed from summer. The next system to keep an eye on may
arrive next weekend as a trough moves across the intermountain
west. However we are still waiting on our first strong cold front
of the season as this trough will probably remain to our north
giving us only the hope of a weak frontal passage to get temps
back down to normal.
Hennig
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
TS is developing this afternoon in southeastern New Mexico and the
Trans Pecos. Currently only expect TS to affect CNM with storms in
the flying area around PEQ and HOB but not in the immediate
vicinity. The threat will remain for the next 6-12 hours before
diminishing after 06Z. Otherwise VFR conditions and light
southeast winds will be dominant.
Hennig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               62  82  59  87 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 62  80  57  84 /  40  20   0   0
Dryden                   65  85  61  90 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            65  83  59  87 /  20  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           58  71  56  76 /  60  30   0   0
Hobbs                    61  79  56  84 /  10  20   0   0
Marfa                    57  76  50  80 /  30  30   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     65  82  60  87 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                   64  81  59  86 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                     64  82  58  87 /  20  20   0   0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Monday for Chinati
     Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.
NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion