Fort Rock, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

427
FXUS66 KMFR 292158
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
258 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...
Overview:
Rainfall that has been advertised for several days is ongoing across
the area with westside areas seeing the higher amounts as predicted.
Rainfall will continue through today/tonight before a lull in
activity, but another round of rainfall is anticipated tomorrow into
Wednesday. The highest amounts will be along and near the coast, but
westside areas in generally will see light to moderate amounts as
well. Some areas along/near the coast could see amounts near 3.00"
when its all said and done Wednesday evening. Westside areas not
along and near the coast could see amounts around 0.50"-1.00" by
Wednesday. Not expected widespread flooding, but nuisance flooding
is expected on roadways which could create slippery conditions as
well as mud/rock slides in more prone areas. Light rainfall could
linger into Thursday for northwest sections of the forecast area,
but overall rainfall amounts drop off significantly after Wednesday
with dry conditions thereafter.
Further Details:
The weather today is being influence by the first wave ahead of a
broader area of cyclonic rotation currently over the Gulf of Alaska.
An associated cold front will continue to push through the region
today bringing widespread rainfall to areas mostly on the westside.
There is an Excessive Rainfall Outlook currently in effect. While
isolated flash flooding is possible, this threat is overall low and
we are expecting mostly nuisance flooding on roadways that could
create hazardous driving conditions. This is especially true for
areas that are prone to mud and rock slides. Rain on roadways in
general will create slippery roads, so extra caution should be taken
while driving through showers the next two days. This first round of
rainfall will bring the higher rainfall amounts of the two rounds
expected today and tomorrow. Probabilities for rainfall indicate
areas near and along the coast will see the higher rainfall amounts,
but the southern Oregon coast (Curry and southern Coos) will see the
highest totals overall. These areas will also have the highest
threat for nuisance flooding and potential hazardous driving
conditions.
The aforementioned area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will
nudge closer to British Columbia tomorrow. However, it is progged
to stall out just off the coast, and meander here through about
Thursday before coming on shore and becoming an open wave. With this
low stalled, it will eject small disturbances over the forecast area
with rainfall continue tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Rainfall
chances will pick back up tomorrow in the afternoon along the coast,
and chances will spread west to east through the afternoon and
evening hours.
The bulk of activity will end Wednesday afternoon, but lingering
showers could produce very light rainfall amounts in the afternoon
and evening of Wednesday. Then chances significantly drop off
Thursday with overall dry conditions through the weekend.
Temperatures will also start to rebound late this week and through
the weekend with temperatures much closer to normal.
-Guerrero
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...
Rainfall is bringing MVFR to IFR levels to coastal areas as a
cold front passes over. As the front moves eastward, VFR to MVFR
levels are expected to return to the coast. Inland areas are
generally expected to remain at VFR levels, although rainfall may
locally lower ceilings and visibilities as well as obscure
elevated terrain. Rainfall is more likely west of the Cascades,
although light rainfall is possible east of the Cascades.
Gusty winds continue over elevated terrain and in the Shasta Valley
at the start of the TAF period. These winds will decrease through
the afternoon and evening but will start to rebuild near the end of
the TAF period.
-TAD
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, September 29, 2025...Seas
remain just below advisory levels behind a passing cold front. Gusty
southerly winds continue over area waters and will increase late
tonight as a second cold front approaches. This front will bring
another round of marine showers and stronger gusty southerly winds.
A Gale Warning is in place from Tuesday morning into late Tuesday
night to cover a period of expected gale gusts and steep to very
steep and hazardous seas across all waters.
Winds easy by early Wednesday morning, but a period of very steep
and hazardous seas continues north of Cape Blanco with steep seas to
the south. Later in the morning, all waters look to be steep through
Wednesday evening and likely beyond. Stable atmospheric conditions
may bring a thermal trough and gusty northerly winds near the end of
the week.
-TAD
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ030-031.
CA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday
     for PZZ350-370.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion