Fort Rucker, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

505
FXUS62 KTAE 191801
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
201 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A slight-to-chance PoPs are in the forecast once again for Saturday
thanks to two forcing mechanisms: 1) seabreeze convergence zone as
onshore afternoon flow collides with prevailing ENE flow; 2) weak
shortwave potentiially providing enough lift for isolated convection
farther north in AL/GA. A relatively dry airmass, particularly in
the mid-levels should limit overall spatial extent and rainmaking
potential. Given sufficient daytime instability, a few thunderstorms
capable of gusty winds are possible. The best convective potential
is the coastal Panhandle area from about Apalachicola Nat`l Forest,
westward. Otherwise, expect a decently warm day with highs in the
low to mid 90s under a mix of sun & clouds. Lows tonight range from
the mid/upper 60s away from the immediate coast. Patchy fog may
develop and spread towards the I-75 corridor down to the Eastern FL
Big Bend during the early-morning hrs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday Night through Sunday Night)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
We`ll find ourselves between a weak ridge to our east and a
shortwave to our west this weekend. Some drier air does move into
the area by Sunday with PWATs closer to 1.1 to 1.3 inches. This
will keep thing rather dry for Sunday afternoon, and may help mix
out dew points a bit more. It will still be quite warm in the
afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s. Lows will be in the
mid to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The pattern becomes much more uncertain in the long term as a
strongly positively-tilted trough moves through the Great Lakes
and Great Plains. Models disagree on placement of this trough and
whether or not the eastern end cuts off and where.
Monday and Tuesday, moisture will begin to increase as the flow
becomes more southwesterly over the area. But rain chances still
remain rather limited at only 10-20%. By Wednesday, the trough and
attendant cold front will be closer to our area, so a slight
uptick in showers and storms is possible. Right now, rain chances
are at an unconfident 30-40% across the area. If the trough is
more progressive and/or stays farther north, then rain chances
will be low. But, if the trough cuts off and/or sinks farther
south, then our rain chances may increase a bit more. Looking at
cluster analyses, all of these scenarios are roughly equally
possible.
Temperatures will still be warm through Tuesday with highs in the
lower 90s, but will gradually decrease through the week back to
the upper 80s. Lows will stay around the upper 60s to near 70.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions are expected. A few showers may develop near the
coast, particularly ECP late this afternoon, but otherwise no
significant aviation impacts are expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Generally light winds are expected through the next several days,
clocking around out of the north to out of the east over the
weekend into early next week. High pressure over the Appalachians
will remain in place until a weak cold front approaches late
week. This cold front will start clocking our winds more out of
the southwest to west mid-next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The best chances for rain through this weekend, albeit isolated and
likely on the light side are on Saturday in the FL Panhandle
seabreeze zone up to the SE AL. A few thunderstorms capable of
gusty/erratic winds are also possible. Otherwise, warm and dry
conditions persist. There are continued elevated fire concerns from
drying vegatative fuels despite min RH remaining above critical
thresholds. High afternoon dispersions are also in the forecast for
parts of the Tri-State area. East to NE winds are prevail with a
shift out of the SW thanks to a daily seabreeze near the coast.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
While isolated showers and storms are possible through Saturday,
appreciable rainfall will be hard to come by on a widespread
basis. These showers may provide localized reprieve to worsening
drought issues, but we will need more rain to overcome the
developing drought.
Rainfall totals with the next system late next week are of very
low confidence thanks to the uncertainty with the upper-level
trough and cut-off low potential. If the trough is farther north
and more progressive, then rainfall totals will be on the lighter
side. But, if the trough cuts off to our west, then a more
beneficial rainfall may occur. However, given such disparity in
the models, it`s hard to pin down how much rain we will ultimately
see.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  68  93  68 /  20   0  20   0
Panama City   91  71  92  72 /  10   0  20   0
Dothan        93  66  95  68 /  20   0  20   0
Albany        94  67  94  67 /  20   0   0   0
Valdosta      92  67  92  66 /  20   0  10   0
Cross City    93  68  93  67 /  20  10  10   0
Apalachicola  88  72  88  73 /  20   0  20   0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Young

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion