Fort Stewart, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

921
FXUS62 KCHS 071110
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
710 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is expected to move through late today, then stall
offshore through the middle of the week. High pressure should
prevail to our north Monday through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak cold front is observed along our far western periphery early
this morning, likely making it to the coast right around daybreak.
Not impossible to see some weak showers develop as the front pushes
through, as evident on radar, but probabilities for any measurable
rainfall are below 15 percent. The front will likely produce enough
mixing to hinder any fog formation, with fog chances further
hindered by the upper level clouds pushing in overhead. After early
morning temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, the front will stall
just off the coast allowing for temperatures to soar back up into
upper 80s and lower 90s by the early afternoon hours.
For the rest of the afternoon hours, the main cold front (with
cooler temperatures) will be pushing through from the north-
northwest while at the same time a sea-breeze is expected to push
inland, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected. Given up to near 2000 J/kg of CAPE, an isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm or two can`t be entirely ruled out, though being
in the left entrance region of the upper level jet isn`t exactly
favorable. With 0-6 km shear looking to be on the marginal side and
weak 700-500 mb lapse rates, would expect strong damaging wind gusts
to be the primary threat with any of the stronger storms. Agreement
amongst the various AI/ML algorithms on whether or not severe storms
are possible is rather low, though the highest risk they depict
would be equivalent to a level 1 out of 5, with SPC maintaining
general thunder across the region given the lack of clear signal.
Precipitable water values rise back up to near 1.75" this afternoon,
which leads to the possibility of locally heavy rainfall, especially
for those inland. HREF probabilities for 2 inches are right near 50%
along I-95 in SE Georgia and east of I-95 in SE South Carolina, with
the HREF the percentile (denoting a reasonable upper-end scenario)
QPF nearby in the 2 to 2.5 inch range. A flood advisory or two may
be needed, though chances for a flash flood look to be minimal right
around 5%, agreeing with the level 1 out of 4 risk for excessive
rainfall from WPC.
The surface high pressure wedge moves in overnight bringing early
morning temperatures on Monday down into the mid 60s inland to lower
70s along the coast. As the surface high pressure strengthens, the
surface winds will also be increasing into the daytime hours on
Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The mid-levels will consist of weak troughing over the Southeast
U.S. on Monday. It should strengthen on Tuesday in response to an
approaching ridge from the Central Plains, and stretch from the
Great Lakes region down to the Deep South on Wednesday. At the
surface, a stationary front will be to our south and southeast
through Wednesday, then start to move away later Wednesday.
Meanwhile, High pressure should stay centered over New England, with
it`s periphery stretching well into the Southeast U.S. This synoptic
setup should yield a tight gradient between dry conditions and
rainfall. The NBM has the lowest POPs and QPF far inland, with the
highest POPs and QPF along the immediate coast. Even higher POPs are
further offshore. The exact details will depend on the mesoscale
setup each day. High temperatures will be below normal due to the
persistent clouds and gusty northeast winds, especially along the
immediate coast. Highs should range from the low/mid 70s across our
SC counties, to the low/mid 80s across our GA counties.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid-level troughing will remain across the Southeast U.S. through
the end of the week. The stationary front is expected to move
further away Wednesday night, with High pressure then becoming the
main surface feature across our area. The NBM has low POPs along the
coast each day, with dry conditions inland. Northeast surface winds
and increased clouds will keep high temperatures below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFs - Very isolated/patchy MVFR fog continues to be
observed this morning, with some isolated MVFR cigs occuring as
well. Widespread VFR conditions will return over the next two
hours, with the next chances for scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms returning this afternoon, with Prob30s for all
3 TAF sites during the afternoon hours. A strong to severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, with the greatest risk
expected to be strong damaging wind gusts. A cold front moves
through tonight swinging winds to become out of the northeast,
with an IFR (or lower) stratus deck expected to move move in
throughout the overnight hours.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible in
afternoon showers/thunderstorms through Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front will be near the area today, first resulting in winds
out of the north which then turn to become out of the east into the
afternoon hours as a sea-breeze pushes inland. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected throughout throughout the afternoon
hours, with greatest chances inland though storms along the coast
are also possible. Overnight, a surface high pressure wedge
strengthens the surface pressure gradient across the near and
offshore waters, leading to sustained winds approaching 20 knots
with gusts into the mid 20s by 6 AM Monday. Small Craft Advisory for
everywhere but the Charleston Harbor at 6 AM.
.MARINE...
A cold front will be near the area today, first resulting in winds
out of the north which then turn to become out of the east into the
afternoon hours as a sea-breeze pushes inland. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected throughout throughout the afternoon
hours, with greatest chances inland though storms along the coast
are also possible. Overnight, a surface high pressure wedge
strengthens the surface pressure gradient across the near and
offshore waters, leading to sustained winds approaching 20 knots
with gusts into the mid 20s by 6 AM Monday. Small Craft Advisory for
everywhere but the Charleston Harbor at 6 AM.
Extended Marine: A stationary front will remain offshore through the
middle of the week, while High pressure prevails to our north. The
interaction between these two synoptic features will enhance the
surface pressure gradient, leading to strong and gusty northeast
winds across the waters Monday into Tuesday. We have Small Craft
Advisories for all of the ocean zones during this time period for
winds and seas, and an Advisory for the Charleston Harbor due to
winds. The stationary front should start to move away later
Wednesday, and continue to move away through the end of the week.
The High to our north will then become more dominant. This will
cause winds and seas to trend lower on Wednesday, but remain
somewhat elevated into the end of the week.
Rip Currents: Strong and gusty northeast winds will cause short-
period waves to build on Monday, along with strengthening the
longshore current. This will lead to a Moderate Risk of rip currents
at all of our beaches. The risk will stay elevated, perhaps through
mid to late week. It`s possible we may eventually need a High Risk
for our beaches.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide levels will continue to increase through the
weekend, getting as high as 6.4 ft MLLW for this mornings high tide
cycle within the Charleston Harbor. For this evening, wind direction
isn`t favorable, though departures look to remain high enough to top
out around 7 ft MLLW this evening in the Charleston Harbor.
Astronomical tide levels will remain high through the middle of the
week due to a full moon (9/7) and lunar perigee (9/10). Winds will
not be particularly favorable for large tidal departures for this
evenings high tide. But observed peak tides could still top out
around 7 ft MLLW at Charleston. A surge of northeast winds along the
coast Monday through midweek is expected to produce increased tidal
departures. This will result in minor to moderate coastal flooding
at the Charleston tide gauge. Minor coastal flooding is possible at
the Fort Pulaski tide gauge beginning Monday evening.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ330.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ350-352-374.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 3 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ354.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion