Frog Level, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

052
FXUS62 KGSP 090543
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
143 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cool high pressure will persist over the region through
this week with below normal temperatures expected through mid-week.
Temperatures will warm to near normal by late week, but dry weather
will continue into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 am EDT Tuesday: A long wave trough will remain centered
to our west through the period, while an area of confluent flow
across southeast Canada and northern New England will support an
area of surface high pressure over Nova Scotia, with the axis of
an inverted ridge extending from there SW all the way into the
Deep South. Associated NE low level flow will steadily augment
through the period over our area due to increasing pressure gradient
associated with a cyclone organizing over the Gulf Stream off the
Carolina Coast. Thermal and moisture trough within the inverted
ridge will therefore remain entrenched over our CWA through
tonight, resulting in temperatures around 10 degrees below climo
and surface dewpoints mixing out into the 40s across much of the
area this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1221 AM EDT Tuesday: Reinforcing high pressure will push
out of eastern Canada into the northeastern United States on
Wednesday as an upper low drifts across Ontario and Quebec...while
an ill-defined coastal low continues to march northward off the
Carolina coast.  Northerly CAA will continue into Thursday as the
low lifts northward into coastal New England.  The result for
the Carolinas will be a continued influx of mainly-dry air out
of the northeast, keeping us devoid of any precip chances and
generally cool.  Temperatures will remain 1-2 categories below
normal through Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EDT Tuesday: On Friday, the surface ridge will be
reinforced along the eastern Seaboard, while the upper pattern
remains largely unchanged.  Another upper low will dive across
Quebec over the weekend, driving a low amplitude shortwave across
the area sometime Saturday night into Sunday, but with little
fanfare; indeed, we`ll remain dry through this period, and the
effects of the shortwave will amount to little more than some
increased cloud cover as it passes through.  Temperatures will
steadily climb back to normal through the weekend.
Early next week...ensembles can`t agree on the forecast; some
guidance steers the upper low out to sea over Nova Scotia, while
other guidance keeps it farther east, sagging into the Mid-Atlantic
by the end of the period.  There`s a very small chance of some
afternoon showers developing over the mountains by the end of the
period should the latter scenario pan out, but the most likely
scenario still appears to be dry weather through the end of D7.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A relatively dry air mass will result in
continued VFR/mostly SKC conditions across much of the Terminal
Forecast Area through this forecast cycle. The only exception
is that some degree of fog/perhaps low stratus is expected to
develop in the mountain valleys toward daybreak. However, this
is expected to be confined to the valleys to the west of KAVL,
so VFR conditions are forecast at the TAF sites through the
period. Otherwise, occasional VFR clouds...mainly FEW/SCT in the
050-060 range are possible, mainly during the daylight hours. Winds
will remain NE through the period (except mostly light/variable
at KAVL), with speeds around 10 kts during the day, and around 5
kts at other times.
Outlook: Dry and mostly VFR through the end of the week, except
for the steadily increasing potential for morning mountain valley
fog and/or low stratus.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JDL

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion