Galbraith, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

023
FXUS64 KLCH 221727
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Daytime showers and thunderstorms will occur in the afternoon
  today and Tuesday.
- A cold front will push through the region Wednesday night into Thursday
  accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Drier and
  somewhat cooler air will filter into the region Thursday evening
  through the weekend.
- There is a Marginal Risk for flash flooding and severe weather
  on Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Today and Tuesday will be a continuation of the weekend with
isolated to scattered showers during the day. Along with the rain,
our hot and humid weather will continue with muggy heat. Highs
will be in the low to mid-90s with dew points well into the 70s.
In the Rockies, a low-pressure system will be the main feature
that will impact our weather. This low will dig south over the
next two days before its associated cold front moves across the
region late Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Before the front
moves through, the pressure gradient between the ridging in the
Gulf and the low to the north will increase our moisture return
with PWATs reaching 2 inches, above the 90th percentile. The WPC
has placed our area under a Marginal Risk for flash flooding. The
SPC has also placed us under a Marginal Risk, with damaging winds
being the main concern.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
We will still be feeling the effects of the front Thursday morning
and into the afternoon as the front moves out of the region. By
Thursday night, we will be looking at some very nice weather with
clear skies, cool temperatures, and less humidity. Even the NBM90
keeps our highs out of the 90s, while the ECMWF and GFS both put
our highs on Friday down into the mid-80s. Overall, we are looking
at almost fall-like conditions and a nice break from the heat of
summer.
Behind the front, high pressure will start to build, dropping our
rain chances to zero for the rest of the week with clear skies.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Outside of showers and the occasional thunderstorm, we are looking
at VFR conditions. Near showers and thunderstorms, conditions can
drop to MVFR/IFR with low visibility and ceilings. Background
winds will be from the southeast around 10 knots. After sunset,
convection will fade with VFR conditions until the next round of
daytime convection.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Buoys show wave heights between 1 and 3 feet, while ASCAT shows
winds less than 15 knots across the Gulf waters. These conditions
will remain consistent until Wednesday when an approaching front
will lead to an increase in winds and waves. Widespread showers
and storms from a cold front will move across the waters Wednesday
night and into Thursday.
By Thursday afternoon, winds will be from the north with gusts
close to 20 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The extended dry streak has led to an increasing fire weather
concern, with several Parishes in southwest Louisiana now
enforcing burn bans. The first half of the week will see improving
fire weather conditions as moisture return will lead to more
showers and minimum RH values around 50%. 20 ft winds will remain
light, less than 10 mph, with gusts staying below 15 mph. Midweek,
a front will move through the region bringing wetting rains.
Behind the front, north winds will drop humidity values, with
minimum RH dropping below 40%.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  92  71  91 /   0  30  10  90
LCH  76  90  76  90 /  10  50  20  80
LFT  73  90  75  88 /  10  40  10  70
BPT  76  90  76  90 /  20  50  20  80
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion