Gallatin Gateway, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

798
FXUS65 KTFX 241146
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
546 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm today and tomorrow with highs 15-20 degrees above
   average.
 - Breezy Friday morning as a cold front pushes through.
 - Pleasant weather continues through the weekend, though
   unsettled weather may return early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 245 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025/
Upper level ridging will be the main weather feature through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend, save for a brief
trough that will push through on Friday. Today and Thursday will
be warm and dry under this upper level ridge, with highs both days
pushing 15-20 degrees above seasonal norms. Cooler temperatures
arrive on Friday behind a weak cold front, which may bring some
brief gusty winds as it crosses the area Friday morning, but winds
are not expected to be impactful at this time.
Behind this trough, the ridge will build back into the area for
the weekend. While the warm and dry weather will return with the
ridge, temperatures look to be slightly cooler but still warm with
highs still 10-15 degrees above average. Our next chance for a
return to cooler (and maybe wetter) weather will arrive early next
week, as a potent upper level trough begins to push ashore on the
West Coast. However, there does remain some uncertainty with the
timing and strength of the trough, so it is hard to pin down
specifics at this time.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Main area of uncertainty in the near term is just how gusty winds
get on Friday morning as the cold front pushes through, as a few
outlying models show winds gusting to around 40-45 mph in a few
spots. While this is unlikely (less than 10% chance), I cant rule
it out and it could cause some brief difficulty for high profile
vehicles. Ludwig
&&
.AVIATION...
24/12Z TAF Period
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours as upper level
ridging remains firmly in place. Winds are expected to generally
be light, though KCTB will see a few gusts to 20kts. Ludwig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  87  45  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  83  40  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  84  47  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  80  43  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  71  29  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  79  41  80  42 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  87  44  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  84  47  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

NWS TFX Office Area Forecast Discussion