Garden, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

400
FXUS63 KMQT 242330 AAC
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Marquette MI
730 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A mostly dry and low impact weather pattern with near to above
average temperatures holds into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
A nearly stationary upper level low remains centered over the
Straits of Mackinac this afternoon, embedded within a longwave
trough which extends southwest to the Ozarks. Visible satellite
imagery shows abundant cloud cover over the eastern half of the UP
in association with the low, with mostly sunny skies west of a line
from Marquette to Iron Mountain. As a result, temperatures have
warmed well into the 60s to around 70 degrees out west while
remaining in the upper 50s to low 60s across the east-central UP.
Any lingering shower activity has stayed south and east of the area
for the most part today, but it would not be out of the question to
see a stray shower or two over Luce and Schoolcraft Counties into
this evening. Quiet weather continues into tonight, with clear skies
allowing temperatures to drop into the low 40s across the west while
the eastern half mostly stays in the upper 40s to low 50s. Could see
patchy fog again in a few spots, but would expect less extensive
coverage than previous nights due to slightly higher surface winds
and waning low level moisture.
Weather trends warmer and sunnier across the rest of the UP on
Thursday as the trough begins to move off to the east and is
replaced by transient shortwave ridging over Upper Michigan and Lake
Superior. This will allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid
70s across the area, with the warmest temps over the west. A cold
front will cross the area Thursday night as the first in a series of
vigorous low pressure systems treks across northern Canada into
Hudson Bay. Models have been consistent in keeping our area dry as
this feature moves through, but a number of CAMS notably show decent
agreement in depicting a line of showers moving into the western UP
around midnight Thursday night. Will therefore not discount the
possibly of some showers and introduce slight chance (15-20%) PoPs
out west Thursday evening. Still do not expect much if any
precipitation in most locations as relatively meager moisture and
limited instability given the time of day will minimize any
impactful weather. Friday will be cooler, with temperatures mostly
back down in the 60s and breezy northerly winds in the wake of the
front.
Another cold front moves across the area on Saturday, but much like
the first system models depict a mostly dry frontal passage with
some breezy winds gusting to 20-25 mph along the Keweenaw Peninsula.
Beyond Saturday, ensemble clusters continue to show good agreement
on high pressure developing over Ontario and the Upper Midwest from
Sunday through the middle of next week. This will promote a period
of dry, pleasant weather across the UP with temperatures running
above seasonal norms with highs in the 70s through the long term
portion of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR prevails the rest of the evening and into the first half of the
night. Tonight, expecting restrictions to set in again at all sites
mainly after 06Z. The highest fog potential exists at CMX/IWD,
though overall confidence fog is rather low and this may materialize
at IFR/LIFR low stratus. At SAW, guidance favors lower clouds off to
the east retrograding back into the area, which would limit fog
potential but would bring in a risk for IFR or lower ceilings. A
gradual improvement to VFR is expected mid to late morning Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Mainly light breezes below 10 kt across Lake Superior today as
surface high pressure replaces a low drifting south into Lower
Michigan. Winds shift southwest late tonight into Thursday and
increase to 15-20 kt over the western half of the lake ahead of an
approaching cold front Thursday, with some 25 kt gusts possible in
the north near Isle Royale. Winds will veer northeasterly behind the
front Thursday night, possibly bringing some small craft advisory
level conditions to the Keweenaw as winds gust to 20-25 kt and waves
build to 3-4 ft through early Friday morning. Conditions will settle
during the day on Friday before the next front brings another round
of stronger westerlies on Saturday. Expect lighter winds to and
calmer waters to return beyond Saturday as high pressure builds over
the region for next week.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...CB

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion