Genesee, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

952
FXUS63 KDVN 231022
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
522 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a chance (25-50%) of showers and isolated
  thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly south of
  I-80. Some funnel clouds may also occur.
- Prolonged period of dry conditions and above normal
  temperatures expected Thursday through early next week, with
  comfortable humidity.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A line of showers and thunderstorms tracked south mainly across our
IA and west central IL counties last evening. Gusty winds up to 45
mph, small hail, and some heavy downpours occurred. Some lucky
hometowns received over 1 inch of beneficial rain per MRMS rain
estimates. Early morning water vapor imagery shows three weak
shortwaves supporting storm development across KS, eastern NE, and
northeast IL.
Latest CAMs and SPC mesoanalysis suggests shower and isolated
thunderstorm coverage to decrease over the next 1-2 hours,
before additional storm chances increase this afternoon and
evening. A weak subtle boundary across our far southern counties
combined with building instability (1100 J/Kg SBCAPE much of
which will be in the low levels) to support scattered showers
and thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected with 00z HREF
joint probabilities of CAPE/Shear displaced well to our south
for this afternoon. However, very weak flow aloft and a moist
environment will support some funnels occurring. The 07z RAP
NST parameter has shifted south some compared to its previous
runs, but still has values over 3 across northeast MO and west
central IL after 21z/4pm this afternoon. Any funnels that form
will be short lived and we will be monitoring for this
possibility.
A limiting factor to all of this is how cloud cover will affect
our warm up today. Have lowered highs slightly today with
readings only reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s. However,
would not be surprised if temps over perform again if we get any
breaks in the clouds like they did yesterday. Overnight lows,
to drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Wednesday...compact upper low over KS to move east and become an
open wave across MO as its associated surface low tracks over
southern IL. This will result in a dry northeasterly flow across the
CWA keeping the bulk of the area dry. Will maintain 15-30% PoPs
south of a Fairfield to Sterling/Rock Falls line for now, but if the
drying trend continues as suggested by the 03z RAP/00z ECMWF then
most if not all the area will be dry Wednesday. Weak CAA (850mb
temps dropping into the 8-11C range) will result in cooler temps
than in recent days, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Thursday-Sunday...a positively tilted trough finally shifts east
into the Ohio river valley, with northwest flow and building heights
aloft left in its wake. This will result in a prolonged period of
dry conditions, comfortable humidity, and slightly above normal
temperatures. An upper level wave will move across southern Canada
Friday night, dragging a cold front through the CWA on Saturday.
1000-500mb RH progs suggest this will be a dry fropa, with only an
increase in clouds and a reinforcing shot of cool dry air seen
behind the front. It will be quite pleasant outside this weekend
for any outdoor plans.
Early Next Week...all deterministic and ensemble model
solutions suggest a building upper level ridge bringing warmer
and continued dry conditions to the area. In fact, the latest
6-10 day temperature and precip outlook from the Climate
Prediction Center has 70% probabilities of above normal
temperatures and 60% combined probabilities of below/near normal
precipitation for the Sept 28th-Oct 2nd timeframe. Taking a
look at the ensemble distribution for highs at MLI for the 29th
and 30th, over 80% of the GEFS, ENS, and GEPS members have
values greater than 75 degrees! This will be good to dry out the
fields, but not so much to alleviate any developing drought
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conditions to prevail through most of the period. Scattered
showers will be possible late afternoon and early evening near
KBRL, as an upper wave moves across northern MO. Confidence has
lowered for any thunder and have removed mention. Late in the
period, some MVFR/IFR conditions are possible especially at
BRL.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gross
LONG TERM...Gross
AVIATION...Gross

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion