Gheens, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

802
FXUS64 KLIX 270417
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1117 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry forecast for much of the period with warm afternoons and
   comfortable low temperatures each day.
- Rain chances slightly increase toward the end of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
We are waking up this Saturday to many locations dropping into
the 60s across the region, especially away from the warmer water
bodies. The overall synoptic pattern has as broad scale trough
over the eastern US with an mid and upper low over northern
Alabama. We sit under a very dry northwest flow aloft. This has
allowed for the more comfortable morning temperatures.
This afternoon as well as Sunday will be fairly similar.
Synoptically, it appears the upper level flow will begin to loosen
slightly with weaker upper level winds and a bit more northerly
direction. Again, mostly sunny skies expected during the
afternoon. Strong surface heating will likely help drop afternoon
humidity values. Often times in these cases dewpoints mix down
below what guidance suggests so the main challenge in terms of the
forecast are those dewpoint temperatures from 18z-00z
respectively. With the strong heating, temperatures will remain
around average or slightly above today and above average Sunday
with many approaching or exceeding 90s. Thankfully, the lower
dewpoints will help make the very warm conditions a bit more
tolerable. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Going into the long term the overall pattern slightly changes and
becomes quite interesting. More about that in a moment. However,
the long term can be mostly characterized as a carbon copy of the
short term. Strong daytime heating leading to very warm
temperatures during the afternoon with many locations warming into
the 90s early to mid week. Overnight lows, thanks for the
relatively dry conditions and lighter low level flow will lead to
very comfortable overnight temps.
Now, the complex science. Early in the weak an upper level trough
over the southeast will move south around the upper level low. At
the same time Invest 94L will be paralleling the southeast
Atlantic Coast. As the ULL spreads southeast it moves under a
ridge over Lake Michigan causing a Rex Block pattern to develop.
This pattern will protect us from Invest 94L direct impacts as it
begins to either move north and west into the Carolinas or stall
offshore and eventually eject eastward with time. Late in the weak
the upper level low and trough will move generally more toward
our region. A bit more moisture in the upper levels and at the
surface will begin to enter from the east. Although most of the
medium range seems dry, by late week the injection of moisture
along with the very cold upper levels will begin to interact and
help bump POPs for showers and storms. With the much colder upper
levels the pattern would support perhaps some small hail potential
in the stronger updrafts, but we have plenty of time to watch how
this unfolds. Overall, model guidance is a bit split in exact
locations of not only the ULL, but also Invest 94L (dying over the
Carolinas or sweeping out to sea). Needless to say low confidence
forecast beyond Wednesday, but for now there is enough support
within the globals to introduce very low-end POPs with the
ULL/Weakness and the uptick in moisture quality. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions through the cycle. As for winds, only light
northerly winds anticipated. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Light to moderate winds and seas will continue this weekend leading
to more benign marine conditions across the region as winds mostly
remain offshore or north and northeasterly. This northerly flow is
expected to continue through much of the forecast. Convection
chances are low but not zero early to mid week next week. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  62  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  86  63  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  87  63  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  88  71  89  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  86  67  88  68 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  87  64  89  64 /  10  10   0   0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion