Gladstone, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

237
FXUS61 KLWX 261300
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
900 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall southeast of the area this weekend.
High pressure over eastern Canada builds south early next week
while a tropical system lifts northward across the southwestern
Atlantic. Depending on track, additional rainfall chances are
possible next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of mid morning, surface analysis showed a surface cold front
departing southern Maryland. The parent trough axis aloft was
crossing the I-81 corridor, accompanied by a few sprinkles and
showers north of US-50. Patchy river valley fog was lifting.
The upper-level trough will pivot across the region today as the
surface cold front slows and stalls just to our southeast. A
couple of spotty showers can`t be ruled out as the upper trough
crosses, particularly south of I-66/US-50 closer to the low-
level frontal zone. Otherwise, mainly dry weather is expected
with a mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures are on track to
reach the lower 80s (70s mountains) amid light northwest flow.
Clouds will increase tonight as a wave of low pressure develops
along the front stalled to the south. Showers, a few of which
could be moderately heavy, are likely to develop overnight in
the I-64 corridor. Light northerly winds may go calm, and where
breaks in the clouds develop and low-level moisture lingers fog
could form. Low temperatures will range from the 50s over the
higher elevations to the upper 60s in the major city centers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Widespread showers are expected Saturday as forcing and moisture
increase on east side of approaching upper low. Showers should
start exiting the area to the east late Saturday night/early
Sunday. Much cooler Saturday due to thick clouds and rain with
highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday...Upper low starts filling in, while at the surface,
high pressure center over the Upper Midwest starts shifting east
toward the northern mid-Atlantic shunting clouds and precip
chances across central and southern VA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There remains and will continue to remain uncertainties with respect
to how the two tropical systems in the Atlantic impact the East
Coast early next week. Fluctuations in model guidance continue as
additional data in ingested into the models. Rain appears likely at
times, though there remains considerably uncertainty with the
northern extent given the Canadian High to the north and amounts.
Lots of uncertainties and NHC has the latest official forecast at
hurricanes.gov.
Temperatures will be in the 70s Monday and Tuesday with higher
elevations staying in the 60s. Overnight temperatures will be in the
60s for those east of the Blue Ridge and 50s for those along and
west. Come Wednesday and Thursday, high temps will fall about 5
degrees each day. Come Thursday, highs will top out in the mid 60s
for most with 50s in the mountains. Temps fall into the 40s areawide
Thursday night (30s in typical cooler locales).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through this evening. Patchy fog is
possible near KMRB early Saturday morning. Lower CIGs may
develop overnight near KCHO overnight, with lower CIGs and rain
chances expanding north and east through Saturday. Light NW
flow becomes N tonight then E Saturday around 5 kts or less.
After rain/showers exit Saturday night, expect low clouds/fog
to redevelop late Saturday night/early Sunday with additional
cig/vsby restrictions likely. Conditions will improve Sunday,
except at CHO where low clouds are likely to persist all day
Sunday until drier arrives Sunday night. Scattered showers will
still
Any impacts are likely related to any tropical landfalls or
remnants. Recommend continuing to look at the latest forecast as
confidence increases over the next few days.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA winds are expected through the early part of next week.
Winds will strengthen during the middle part of next week. Winds
will be light NW today, N tonight, then E this weekend as a
front stalls to the south and high pressure builds to the north.
Impacts will be dependent on how the tropical system evolves and
impacts the East Coast early next week. Solutions range from near
SCA winds to potentially gale force gusts. Will continue to
monitor.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR/DHOF
NEAR TERM...LFR/DHOF
SHORT TERM...LFR/DHOF
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...LFR/DHOF/CPB
MARINE...LFR/DHOF/CPB

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion