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Glazier, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

321
FXUS64 KAMA 191733
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1233 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

- Best thunderstorm chances this weekend will be Saturday, with the eastern panhandles having higher chances compared to the western panhandles.

- Next potential impactful weather system to bring rounds of showers and storms starts Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

The panhandles currently finds itself in a relatively more stable situation following departure of the main weather system and the arrival of a secondary pushes of instability associated with the back of the weather system. This means that this afternoon and most of the evening will be a period of calm and fair weather conditions. The temperatures will rise back to normal as the weather system has already moved its cooler air out of the area. Come late this evening the secondary push on the back side of the weather system enters the panhandles. This will bring a corridor of instability that will slowly transit west to east across the panhandles. When it first arrives late in the evening it will have lost the assistance of daytime heating to further enhance the instability. Thus it will only have a very low chance of causing rain showers and thunderstorms. This will hold true as the push moves from the western panhandles to the central panhandles during the overnight hours. With dawn on Saturday the sun will provide additional daytime heating that will contribute to the unstable conditions. This will lead to a gradual increase in the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. During the later morning hours this will increase the chance of rain to low and then to a low to moderate chance by the afternoon to evening. Some pockets of higher instability of roughly 1000-2000 J/Kg can form during the afternoon and evening hours of Saturday. This will allow for at least a very low chance for the formation of strong to even severe thunderstorms. The main threats from any strong to severe storms in this environment will be large hail and damaging winds. The area of rain and thunderstorms will slowly move to the east so by the overnight hours of Saturday and Sunday it will move into OK proper. This will spell the end of this weather system impact to the panhandles.

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.LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

Sunday and Monday will have a high chance of seeing a large scale pattern shift across the Great Plains. This broadly should put the southern plains and the panhandles under a northwest flow which is favorable for bringing in smaller scale weather systems. There is still a moderate confidence that the first of such weather systems will push into the southern plains on Tuesday. However there remains a large amount of discrepancies that make it very hard to pin the exact nature of this system down. The first is the shift in the weather pattern has a moderate chance of picking up a low pressure off the west coast into the broader flow. In doing so it could shift around the flow across the southern plains making trajectory of the upcoming weather system hard to pin down. This matter heavily as the trajectory of the system will dictate exactly what impacts the panhandles would receive. If the system moves unfavorably then the panhandles may see little to even no precipitation. If we end up with a more favorable passage then we could see fairly widespread rains. So for now we are keeping a low chance for precipitation mid next week fully expecting to shift this once we get a better idea of what the weather system will be doing. Beyond this for the latter portions of next week the uncertainty becomes to great to make any solid forecast beyond the broad scale. For now the broad scale pattern is indicative that cooler and wetter conditions would be favored for the panhandles.

&&

.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

Generally VFR conditions for the next 24 hours outside of any rain showers and thunderstorms. There is a very low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms during the overnight and early morning hours of Friday into Saturday. This timeframe will not be reflected in the TAF as it is just to low of a chance. Then for the late morning to evening hours of Saturday there is an low to moderate chance for rain showers and thunderstorm. This better chances for this are outside the current TAF time frame so there are not included for this package. There is a very low chance that a strong to even severe thunderstorm develops for Saturday afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threat. During the passage of any rain shower or thunderstorm conditions will most likely decrease to at least MVFR. If a station is impacted by a strong thunderstorms then conditions can reduce down to even IFR levels. Otherwise gusty southerly winds can be expected for the daytime hours of today.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...98

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion

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