Glazier, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KAMA 181721
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1221 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Low chance for afternoon and evening rain showers and
  thunderstorms mainly in the SE TX Panhandle.
- Cooler temperatures today from the cool air associated with the
  weather system passing through with highs mainly in the 70s to
  low 80s.
- Low to moderate chances for further rain showers and
  thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.
- Weather pattern shift for next week makes it increasingly likely
  for more weather systems to impact the southern plains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
A weather system is slowly departing the southern plains for
today through this evening. Earlier this morning this weather
system had an area of rain showers and thunderstorms across the
southeastern portions of the TX panhandle. This feature is
important as it consumed some of the environmental energy that
could have been used for further rain showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. So now it comes down to how much
environmental energy we are able to build back up from daytime
heating. Currently it seems that we should be able to build around
1000 J/Kg of CAPE which would be sufficient to cause some late
afternoon to evening thunderstorms. There is a very low chance
that we will be able to regenerate even higher environmental
instability. If that occurs we would be able to form isolated
strong to even severe thunderstorms which in turn could produce
large hail and damaging winds. Now the converse of this can also
play out with a low chance that we do not regenerate enough
environmental instability due to the morning rain and cloud
cover. If this come to pass then we will not be able to form the
afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Regardless
if the afternoon and evening thunderstorms form the increasingly
stable conditions during the late evening into the overnight hours
will see fair weather conditions return to the panhandles. If
these stabler conditions manage to hold on then it will lead to
another hazard with the formation of a fog bank from prior
rainfall. If this manages to form during the sting of stable
conditions it could bring severely reduced driving conditions to
the Friday morning commute. However the is another push associated
with the weather system that has a low to moderate chance of
arriving during the overnight hours. If this happens then instead
of fog we would see a low chance for nocturnal rain showers and
even some lightning. It seems more likely that neither of these
features will form and we are left with fair weather conditions
for the overnight hours. Friday evening there is a moderate
chance for a secondary push from the back side of the weather
system to moves into the southern plains including the panhandles.
In doing so this push will bring increasing instability to the
panhandles that will have a low chance to flair a band of rain
showers and thunderstorms. If this band forms it would slowly
transit eastward across the panhandles through the evening into
the overnight hours.
With regards to the temperatures today has the cool air associated
with the weather system moving across the panhandles leading to
cooler conditions. This will see the highs peak generally in the
70s to lower 80s across the panhandles. For Friday this cool air
will have departed with near normal temperatures returning. This
will see the highs on Friday climb back to the 80s to even low 90s
for the hottest spots.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Saturday will have a moderate chance of still having the secondary
push of the weather system slowly moving across the panhandles.
This would continue to cause a band of instability that would
slowly drift eastward across the panhandles. During the morning
hours this leads to a low chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms in the western to central panhandles. Then in the
afternoon the band of instability shift to the eastern panhandles.
With increasing daytime heating the instability will most likely
rise leading to a moderate chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms. The amount of instability at this time is most
likely to remain low so the current thinking is that there wont be
enough to support the formation of any strong storms. If we do
manage to build in higher amounts of instability then stronger
storms will become a concern again. At this time it is just to
uncertain to fully rule out the chances for any stronger storms.
The secondary push of this weather system then has a moderate
chance of leaving the panhandles during the evening which will
end the rain showers and thunderstorms chances.
The departure of the weather system has a moderate chance of
bringing a small window of relative stability to the panhandles
for Sunday. This would leave the chance of any rainfall during
this time as very low but not zero. So we may still see an
isolated rain shower pop up during the daytime but this will be
very much the exception.
Monday has a moderate to high chance of seeing the weather pattern
shift to that of a northwest flow across the southern plains.
This pattern is favorable to bring weather system to the panhandle
which lead to period of rain. Since Monday would be the first day
of this flow the chances of rainfall is currently low for that
day.
Come Tuesday there is building confidence that there will be a
weather system that transits the NW flow into the southern plains.
The big questions are; what is the exact trajectory this system
will take, the moisture associated with it, and its strength. The
range of where this system could go ranges from passing right
across the panhandles to passing well to the north and to the
east. The precise location of passage would greatly impact the
moisture, or lack thereof, that would pass across the panhandles.
This greatly limits the confidence in any rainfall chances for
mid next week. So for now we are going with at least a low chance
for rain and thunderstorms during this time fully expecting this
to either rise or fall as we get a better idea of what this
upcoming weather system will do. What is more certain is the
passage of this system through the region will bring a drop in the
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
A weather system is causing a low chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening mainly in the southern
panhandles. The chances of this impacting KAMA are to low to be
reflected within the current TAFs. Then this evening and overnight
there is another very low chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms that shouldn`t impact any terminal. Generally VFR
conditions are expected across the panhandles for the next 24
hours. There is an exception in that prior rainfall will have a
very low chance of forming fog tonight into Friday morning. The
confidence in this occurring is not near high enough to be
reflected within any TAF. If it did manage to form then KAMA would
be the area most likely impacted. Otherwise light winds can be
expected at all terminals for the next 24 hours which at time can
cause variable wind directions.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion