Goldsmith, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

979
FXUS64 KMAF 270728
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
228 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 123 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this
  weekend, especially across locations west of the Pecos River,
  where rain chances increase to 40-80%.
- Locally heavy rainfall could lead to instances of flash flooding
  over portions of southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe and Davis
  Mountains, Van Horn Corridor, Marfa Plateau, and Presidio Valley
  this weekend, especially going into Sunday.
- A warmer and drier pattern sets up next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper-level
low spinning over the vicinity of southern California and
southwestern Arizona. Shortwave impulses within the southwesterly
flow aloft ahead of this system have been aiding in the
development of scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms
over northern Mexico the past few hours. Radar has also shown a
persistent area of light to moderate rain showers spreading into
the Presidio Valley, Marfa Plateau, Van Horn Corridor, and Davis
Mountains along the eastern periphery of the moisture plume and
region of favorable ascent. Precipitable water values up to 1.0
to 1.3 inches are in place across these locations early this
morning per SPC mesoanalysis. Some locations have picked up
between 0.25 and 0.50 inches of rain and locally near 0.75 inches
over western/southwestern portions of our forecast area the past
few hours according to a few of the TTU mesonet, RAWS, and TWDB
rain gauges. We increased POPs through the remainder of the night
over these locations and will be monitoring observational trends
for locally heavy rainfall before this activity should gradually
diminish toward daybreak.
We are still anticipating a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms to impact western portions of our forecast area
through the weekend. The upper-level low situated over the Desert
Southwest will move little today and tonight. This feature does
look to open into a trough on Sunday and progress toward the Four
Corners and western New Mexico/far west Texas by Sunday night. The
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this system should continue to
spread into western portions of our forecast area today and
tonight, while associated ascent and increasing deep layer
moisture supports an increasing chance of showers and storms
over locations especially along and west of the Pecos River. We
will keep the best chance (40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast generally along and west of an Eddy County NM,
Reeves TX, Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau, Presidio Valley line
today and tonight, while lesser chances (20-30%) extend as far
east as a Hobbs NM, Wink TX, Big Bend National Park line. Dry
weather conditions are expected over the Permian Basin and into
the Lower Trans Pecos region where upper-level ridging will remain
prevalent today and tonight.
The chance of showers and thunderstorms looks to trend even higher
across western portions of the forecast area on Sunday as
shortwave impulses with southwesterly flow aloft spread further
east into this portion of our area and the associated plume of
deeper moisture essentially becomes aligned from the southeast New
Mexico Plains to the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains and western Big
Bend region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
should develop through the day Sunday and will keep rain chances
quite high (50-80% coverage) along and west of an Artesia,
Carlsbad, Balmorhea, Marfa, Presidio line. Isolated to scattered
(20-40% chance) of showers and storms may extend as far east as
the western Permian Basin into the Stockton Plateau and Big Bend
region. The rest of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region
unfortunately looks to miss out on meaningful rain chances again
Sunday as these locations remain too far detached east of the
moisture plume and lift. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding this weekend over western portions of our forecast
area, especially going into Sunday when greater coverage of
showers/storms are anticipated with potential for training in the
increasingly difluent S/SW flow aloft. Frequent lightning strikes
and gusty winds may also accompany stronger storms that develop,
but the severe potential (damaging wind/hail) looks to be very low
through the weekend. Highs today will range in the 80s to near 90
over much of the region with lows tonight mostly in the 60s,
except for 50s in the higher terrain areas and lower 70s along the
Rio Grande. Highs by Sunday may only reach into the 70s over much
of the western CWA given the high amount of cloud cover and good
rain chances. Readings otherwise look to range into the 80s to
around 90 degrees over the rest of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
No significant changes were made to the extended portion of the
forecast. The upper-level trough axis will swing across southeast
New Mexico and west Texas on Monday. Moisture and ascent
associated with this feature generally remains oriented over
western portions of the forecast area again Monday, so we will
keep low rain/storm chances (20-30%) intact over southeast New
Mexico and along areas west of the Pecos River in west Texas.
Upper-level ridging will build back into the forecast area through
the rest of the upcoming week, so expect a warming trend with a
return to dry weather conditions across the region Tuesday through
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR will remain prevalent for the most part through the forecast
period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along
and west of the Pecos River, with some potential for convection to
impact the KCNM terminal Saturday afternoon and evening. We opted
to include PROB30 mention of TSRA between 21-03Z at KCNM. Southerly
to southeasterly winds will persist through the period over most
terminals.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               89  62  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 85  64  79  61 /  40  50  60  20
Dryden                   91  65  90  66 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            89  65  85  64 /  10  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           77  58  71  56 /  50  60  70  40
Hobbs                    85  60  81  61 /  20  20  30  10
Marfa                    81  58  75  55 /  40  40  60  30
Midland Intl Airport     89  64  86  64 /  10   0  10  10
Odessa                   89  64  85  64 /  10   0  10  10
Wink                     89  63  84  62 /  20  20  20  10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion