Gopher, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

930
FXUS63 KABR 100915
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
415 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly elevated smoke will remain across the area tonight, while
slowly improving late today.
- Morning fog is reducing visibility to a quarter mile or less at
times. A Dense Fog Advisory is in place for portions of the region
through morning.
- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather over
portions of north central SD late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening. Additional strong to potentially severe storms will be
possible this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Satellite shows low stratus and fog spreading over the region early
this morning. Issued a dense fog advisory for most of the forecast
area east of the Missouri River and Corson county based on satellite
and webcams. Some areas are already socked in with very low
visibility.
Southeast winds increase today with gusts to 35 mph across central
SD. The good mixing under the upper ridge will help push
temperatures across south central SD about 10 degrees above climo
norms today and Thursday. Across the east, more seasonable highs are
forecast. Can`t rule out some shower or thunderstorm development
tonight on a 30 kt llj, but hi-res models are less supportive. So,
other than in north central SD, pops remain below a mention even if
non-zero.
The pattern remains similar during the daytime Thursday. However,
fog should be less prevalent due to the breezier winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Thursday evening, the axis of the upper level ridge has passed and
the area is in southwestern flow. The EC and GFS show a shortwave
move southwest to northeast across the region early Saturday
morning. Models have come into a bit more agreement as to the upper
level trough for Sunday. The Canadian, EC, and GFS all show a
negatively tilted trough move into the region. The axis doesn`t
really ever cross the region so our upper level winds generally stay
out of the south. Once the low/trough moves off to the north, our
upper level winds become more westerly. Wednesday, the EC shows a
low over western SD while the Canadian and GFS show a low over the
western Rockies. These lows continue to move east through the end of
the period.
There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for isolated severe
storms Thursday night over north central SD. Thursday night, there
is around a 20% chance of showers/storms mainly over north central
SD. Starting Friday evening, 40-70% PoPs move into the region from
the west and slowly spread east through the day Saturday. These
shower/storm chances diminish to 30-40% for Sunday and finally die
off late Sunday night. Some storms may become severe. The start of
the week looks to be dry before 20-40% chances return for Wednesday
ahead of a possible incoming low. 24 hr QPF from the NBM shows 30-
60% chances of more than a quarter of an inch west of the James
River, highest chances west of the Missouri River. Friday still
looks to be the warmest day of the long term with highs 10-15
degrees above average, but the rest of the period will still be 5-10
degrees above average.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
Fog is the chief concern through the next 12-18 hours. KATY has
the highest probability of seeing MVFR to IFR VISBY, with MVFR for
KABR and possibly KMBG.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning for
     SDZ003>011-016>023-034-036-037-051.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for MNZ039-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...07

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion