Gorham, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

824
FXUS63 KICT 120752
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
252 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable to above average temperatures through Tuesday, with
  a modest cool down by mid next week.
- Increasing shower/storm chances Saturday night through Sunday
  night, and again off-and-on Monday night through next week.
  Locally heavy rain and associated minor flooding concerns
  possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
PRECIPITATION:
EARLY THIS MORNING...Weak mid-level warm advection and associated
mid-level moistening will support spotty hit-or-miss high-based
showers and perhaps a lone clap of thunder across mainly central and
eastern Kansas through about sunrise or shortly after. Most
locations will remain dry, and severe weather or heavy rainfall is
not expected given very meager instability and effective shear.
SATURDAY NIGHT--SUNDAY NIGHT...A deep western CONUS upper trough
ejecting onto Mid-America and associated increasing precipitable
waters will serve as a focus for increasing shower/thunderstorm
chances. Thinking chances will be highest generally northwest of the
I-35 corridor. Pockets of heavy rainfall and localized minor
flooding will be the primary hazards, as limited instability/shear
should prevent severe storms.
MONDAY NIGHT--FRIDAY...A second ejecting slow-moving deep western
CONUS upper trough will be the focus for additional off-and-on
shower/thunderstorm chances from Monday night on. Thinking chances
will be greatest generally Wednesday through Thursday, when large
scale synoptic forcing is greatest (combination of upper trough and
approaching frontal zone). Once again, limited instability/shear
should prevent severe storms, although locally heavy rainfall and
associated minor flooding concerns are possible.
TEMPERATURES:
Increasing atmospheric thickness and persistent southerly flow ahead
of an approaching deep upper trough will support seasonable to above
average temperatures in the 80s to low 90s through Tuesday. Sunday
will see a slight cool down, especially over central Kansas where
precipitation/clouds will be most prevalent. Wednesday--Friday
should see a modest cool down into the 70s-80s given the increased
clouds/precipitation chances and weak cold frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Low-level
wind shear is expected in the overnight hours into the morning
hours of Friday in central Kansas affecting RSL, SLN, and GBD
sites. Southerly to southwesterly winds are expected to increase to
around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 to 25 knots across
the area Friday afternoon. Portions of central Kansas could see
gusts exceed 30 knots at times towards the end of the TAF
period.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...GC

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion