Graford, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

706
FXUS64 KFWD 042327
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
627 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will persist into early next week with
  little chance for rainfall.
- A weak cold front may approach our region towards the middle of
  next week which could result in low rain chances (20%) by
  Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025/
/Rest of this Weekend/
Upper ridging and a dry airmass overhead will allow for mostly
sunny and rain-free conditions to continue through the remainder
of the weekend. Diurnal scattered cumulus will likely develop in a
plume of greater quality moisture settling over parts of the Big
Country and western Central Texas this afternoon. Otherwise,
expect afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and overnight
lows in the 60s through Sunday.
Langfeld
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025/
/Monday and Beyond/
By Sunday night, more favorable south-southeasterly low-level flow
will return to the region allowing for a gradual increase in
moisture heading into the workweek. Expect increasing cloud cover
and humidity starting Monday with even some seabreeze shower/storm
activity nudging into our Central Texas and Brazos Valley
counties Monday afternoon. A weak cold front will approach North
Texas early Tuesday as a deepening mid-level shortwave traverses
across the Northern Plains. It is uncertain how far this boundary
will push into our forecast area with the primary synoptic-scale
support remaining well north of the state of Texas, however
increasing low-level convergence in the vicinity of this boundary
will allow for the return of at least low end rain chances
Tuesday. Low chances of rain will persist through at least late
Wednesday with the upper-level pattern becoming more zonal with
continuous shortwave disturbances moving through the westerly flow
aloft. Notable, widespread wetting rainfall is not expected at
this time with the NBM 25th-75th percentile range highlighting
generally a trace to 0.35" of rainfall across the region Tuesday
through early Thursday. However, increased cloud cover, a
breakdown in the upper-level ridge, and east-northeasterly low-
level flow will likely nudge afternoon high temperatures downward
at least a couple degrees during the middle to end of next week.
Langfeld
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with SKC
through tomorrow morning and southeast winds up to around 10
knots. Moisture levels will increase Sunday afternoon with few/sct
low clouds around 6-7k ft possible. An isolated shower is possible
across East Texas on Sunday afternoon but any showers should stay
southeast of D10.
Shamburger
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  89  69  88  70 /   0   0   0  10  20
Waco                65  89  67  89  70 /   0   0   5  20  20
Paris               63  87  66  85  67 /   0   0   5  20  20
Denton              62  88  64  87  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
McKinney            64  89  66  87  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dallas              68  90  69  89  71 /   0   0   0  10  20
Terrell             63  89  65  87  67 /   0   0   0  20  20
Corsicana           66  90  68  89  70 /   0   0   5  20  20
Temple              63  89  65  88  67 /   0   0   5  20  10
Mineral Wells       62  90  64  89  65 /   0   0   0  10  10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion