Gross Lake, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

377
FXUS64 KLZK 150509 AAA
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1209 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
-A dominant upper lvl ridge will position over Arkansas through
 the middle portion of the workweek.
-An upper level trough will approach the Central Plains by the middle
 of next week and bring a respectable chance for precipitation to
 Arkansas.
-A lower-end chance (15% to 20%) of a few isolated showers will be
 possible across parts of Arkansas on Sunday afternoon, Monday
 afternoon, and Tuesday afternoon.
-Expect the worsening of drought conditions over the next week as
 hot and dry weather will be expected overall through mid-week and
 only a dent may be put into drought conditions in locations that
 experience the highest rainfall totals by Saturday. As the later
 forecast packages near midweek, the areas with the greatest
 opportunity to experience higher rainfall totals should become
 clearer.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
SUNDAY (TODAY) THROUGH TUESDAY:
The most noted upper lvl feature for the next several days is a
stout region of amplified ridging with the center of the
aforementioned ridge positioned directly over the Mid-South region
of the CONUS including over Arkansas. The overall weather conditions
to expect over this period will be hot and dry conditions.
However, it`s worth a mention that several short-term models
including the HRRR and RAP continue to show a signal of isolated
showers developing during the afternoon into early evening timeframe
across a large portion of Arkansas, this is also supported by HREF
probabilistic data that continues to suggest a 15% to 20% chance of
showers over a large part of the state due to an upper lvl closed
low that is positioned across the Four Corner region of the CONUS,
but will quickly eject north-northeastward over the Central Plains
region of the CONUS into the early workweek, but will remain in
close enough proximity to provide lower end PoPs across part of the
state. Unfortunately, these showers will be widely isolated, but
will have an outside opportunity to settle the dust if you become
lucky enough to be underneath the right spot at the right time. A
few showers may produce a couple of lightning strikes, but decent
thunderstorm activity is not anticipated today through Tuesday.
Expect temperatures to remain around 5 to 10 degrees above average
compared to normals for mid-September over this period.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
An upper lvl trof will dig over the Central Plains region of the
CONUS on Wednesday and the ridge will become elongated across the
Southern region of the CONUS as the center of this ridge is expected
to retrograde back over northern Mexico and far southern Texas.
Appreciable chances for PoPs will begin on Wednesday as a weak cold
front approaches the Central Plains region of the CONUS and moves
across Arkansas on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Temperatures overall will be not be significantly impacted, but the
rain-cooled air and a slightly cooler airmass will lower
temperatures overall to values right near average to a few degrees
above average.
A second weak cold front will near the state of Arkansas on Friday
morning into Friday afternoon keeping the chance for PoPs ahead of
the boundary. However, PoPs will range in the vicinity of 20% to 30%
across the state. Finishing out the forecast on Saturday will be t
he cold front struggling to move completely into Arkansas, but
keeping a lower end chance of PoPs in the forecast during the day on
Saturday, but this forecast out this far is likely to change and
become more refined as any specifics this far out remain low
confidence.
A very preliminary look at rainfall totals between today and next
Saturday look to vary greatly across the state as most of the rain
and storm activity over the next seven days will be isolated to
scattered across the state. A few locations may approach 1 inch of
total rainfall over this seven day period while other locations will
be lucky to tally a tenth of an inch of total rainfall. A dent will
possibly be put into drought condition across locations that are
fortunate enough to experience the higher rainfall totals while
other locations may experience little to no relief from drought
conditions.
Expect temperatures to remain near average to as much as 8 degrees
above average compared to normals for mid-September over this period.
The upper lvl ridge will continue to contribute to a dry and hot
pattern overall which will continue to worsen drought conditions
across the state (a few exceptions may apply in locations that
experience the higher rainfall totals between today and next
Saturday). Anticipate grassfire and wildfire danger to continue to
increase.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Expect dominant VFR conditions to persist...though some patchy fog
may be seen this morning. Some isolated/scattered convection will
be possible on Mon...especially in the afternoon hrs. Expect this
activity to dissipate by the late evening hrs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  93  64  94 /  10  10   0  10
Camden AR         66  93  65  92 /  10  20  10  20
Harrison AR       65  89  63  89 /  20  30  10  20
Hot Springs AR    68  93  66  92 /  10  30  10  20
Little Rock   AR  69  92  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
Monticello AR     68  94  68  94 /  10  20  10  10
Mount Ida AR      66  92  65  91 /  10  30  10  30
Mountain Home AR  66  93  64  93 /  20  20  10  10
Newport AR        68  93  67  94 /  10  10   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     68  93  66  94 /  10  10   0  10
Russellville AR   68  92  67  93 /  10  20  10  20
Searcy AR         67  93  65  94 /  10  10   0  10
Stuttgart AR      68  93  68  94 /  10  10   0  10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...62

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion