Grovespring, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

504
FXUS63 KSGF 290857
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
357 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and dry weather for the next 7 days.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Mostly clear skies early this morning paired with light to calm
winds will provide a good radiational cooling setup again
tonight. This will support patchy, shallow fog in fog-prone low-
lying areas through around 8 AM local time this morning,
especially river valleys.
High pressure stays in place today, with nearly the same
conditions as yesterday with afternoon highs in the mid 80s and
mostly clear skies. High clouds start to filter in this evening
off the fringes of a disturbance in west Texas.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Going to be much of the same through the remainder of this week,
with upper-level flow remaining progressive but slow-moving.
High pressure dominates surface conditions, with highs in the
mid 80s, lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, and staying dry.
The ridge will change shape with the movement of the polar jet,
going from broad and negatively tilted at the beginning of the
week to positively tilted by Wednesday and Thursday, and model
guidance has a clear consensus that this is how the pattern will
evolve. The ridge will begin to flatten a bit as it gets
tilted, with some help from the shortwave currently in west
Texas as it slides east across the Gulf Coast.
However, after an open trough reaches the West Coast on
Thursday, guidance begins to split off as individual members
disagree about the characteristics of the trough. The
disagreements can largely be boiled down to two main
differences: amplitude/strength of the trough, and speed of
eastward progression. The speed at which the tropical
disturbances in the Atlantic get absorbed into the larger
hemispheric flow upstream will dictate some of how this pattern
will evolve.
Looking into the more extended forecast, global ensembles
suggest that the hemispheric pattern will become more active,
transitioning from five to six waves into next weekend. But for
now, we hang out in the quiet zone while we wait for our next
rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions, light and variable winds, and mostly clear
skies through the overnight hours and into Monday morning.
Fog is again expected near river valleys and fog-prone low-
lying areas between 09Z and 13Z Monday, but fog will be
extremely localized and is not anticipated to impact TAF sites.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion