Gurley, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

957
FXUS64 KHUN 201711
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1211 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Any lingering patchy fog has burned off this morning as shown by
area surface observations and visible satellite imagery. The
forecast for today is very similar to that of yesterday with
slightly less coverage of afternoon convection. With SB CAPE
values of 750-1500 J/kg still in place, we should become uncapped
by 11 AM with convective initiation over the higher elevations of
northeast Alabama between 12PM-2PM. Gusty, outflow winds once
again today will likely drive additional initiation across the
Tennessee Valley throughout the afternoon. Steering flow remains
weak (roughly 5-10 knots) so localized flooding issues will once
again be a concern. Max temps top out 5-10 degrees above normal in
the upper 80s to mid 90s. If heading outside today, precautions
should still be taken for the heat including drinking plenty of
water, taking breaks in the AC or a shaded area, wear light loose
fitting clothing, and limiting strenuous activity during the main
heat of the day between 11 AM-4 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Syntopic setup throughout the short term period will be focused
on a trough centering over the Great Lakes region deepening
southward into the northern Gulf into early next week as high
pressure shifts from the NE U.S. into the central Atlantic. A
secondary shortwave will transition from the northern Rockies
towards the Great Lakes region, assimilating with the
aforementioned trough, allowing for further amplification as we
approach the mid-week time frame. Within the east southeasterly
flow, a couple of weak vort maxes will transition across the
Tennessee Valley throughout the short term period as
southwesterly flow increases Monday into Tuesday with the trough
strengthening to our north and west. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue each day at 25%-50% as a result; lower
along and south of the TN River and higher north of the river.
Shear values are not impressive early next week but with
increasing instability and a slight increase in forcing, the
environment will be capable of maintaining some reasonable
updrafts and a few stronger storms with gusty winds and small hail
will be possible. Highs remain in the upper 80s/low 90s with mild
low temps in the mid- upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A somewhat unsettled weather pattern will continue into the long
term period as a series of upper waves pivot across the Ozarks and
into the TN/OH River Valleys ahead of a closed upper low. This
will result in increasing rain and thunderstorm chances as we head
into the mid- week period as well as cooler temperatures. The
heaviest activity is expected on Wednesday where we will have to
watch for the threat of localized flooding as PWAT values climb
near 2". There may also be a period where favorable instability
and shear overlap and could bring the risk for a few strong to
severe storms so this will need to be monitored over the coming
days. A cold front will push through the area Wednesday night into
Thursday and rain chances should gradually taper off into the
weekend. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s/lower 80s for
highs and lows will cool down to the low/mid 60s by the end of the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will remain light at 8 knots or
less throughout the period, favoring the west this afternoon and
south southeast overnight becoming light and variable at times.
The exception will be with any gusty outflow winds from area
showers and storms this afternoon which could cause erratic wind
shifts and a brief uptick in speed. Chances remain low (less than
20%) at the terminals for any direct impacts by showers and
storms. High cloud cover at or above 20k feet will remain SCT-BKN
for much of the period with FEW lower cumulus clouds between 6k-9k
feet this afternoon. Another low chance remains for fog overnight
with a brief period of vsbys between 5-7 miles possible early
Sunday morning.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KG
SHORT TERM....KG
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...KG

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion