Haas Pond, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

377
FXUS61 KBGM 221201
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
801 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A much more unsettled and showery weather pattern arrives
this afternoon and continues through the upcoming week. A
series of fronts and waves of low pressure will bring clouds and
shower chances each day. Temperatures look to remain mild, with
near to above average readings expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
8 AM Update
Increased and adjusted cloud cover this morning based on the
latest visible satellite and observations. There is an expansive
stratus cloud deck over all of NE PA, the Catskills, most of the
Susquehanna region and NY Southern Tier. This will be slow to
scatter out, possibly not until late morning or midday.
Previous Discussion Below
Cloud cover increases from the west as an unsettled and
unorganized weather slowly migrates towards our area. Chances
for rain showers increases this afternoon, with potential for a
thunderstorm or two mainly for areas west of I-81 with some
mixed layer instability in the afternoon. High temperatures will
be above average again today, with temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s, and some areas hitting in the low 80s. Mostly cloudy
and showery conditions continue into Monday night with very
mild overnight lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s.
A more prominent shortwave will push into the area from the
southwest on Tuesday, which will likely bring more periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall. Thunderstorm potential has a
stronger probability for Tuesday, with CAPE values up to 500
J/kg and 30 knots of 0-6 km shear. PWATs are between 1.25 and
1.5, which will give us the first good chance of accumulating
rainfall since the past few weeks. Temperatures will be slightly
cooler than today, but still warm and above average in the low
to upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Rainfall is expected to taper off through Tuesday night as a
weak front moves southeast and away from the area, and overnight
temperatures will remain warm in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Heading into midweek, the region will be under a upper level
trough with lingering moisture and instability in the NW flow
regime. This may allow for scattered pop up showers and isolated
storms to develop in the afternoon, especially from the Twin
Tiers/Catskills south into NE PA. Seasonably mild temperatures
expected in the 70s. Another warm front with additional showers
is progged to start approaching from the south-southwest
Wednesday night; otherwise skies are mostly cloudy with mild
overnight lows.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period looks to remain unsettled and showery much of the time.
Guidance has a frontal system slowly works its way through the
region Thursday, with differing arrival times and placement. An
upper level trough remains in place across the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys right into Friday, bringing additional chances
for rain to Central NY and Northeast PA in the moisture
southerly flow. Temperatures will still be mild despite the
clouds and showers around; with highs in the upper 60s to lower
70s and overnight lows in the 50s to near 60.
There is greater uncertainty in the forecast for next weekend.
Overall, it appears a general broad upper level trough will be
working it`s way through the area, with general 20-30% chance
for rain showers every day. Temperatures look to remain steady
in the 70s during the day, and upper 40s to 50s overnight.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR through most of the afternoon. MVFR/VFR stratus
should burn off by mid-morning for KELM,KBGM and KAVP. Ceilings
gradually lower later this afternoon through the evening with
scattered showers/ isolated brief thunder as well. Lowering of
ceilings to IFR overnight likely with additional scattered
showers.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Wednesday...Showers with occasional
restrictions possible. Highest chance for restrictions is
Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Thursday...A chance for scattered showers and associated
restrictions.
Friday...Generally VFR. Still a chance for showers.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/MJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MWG

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion