Halsted, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

996
FXUS64 KEWX 020546
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm days and mild nights continue through the middle of next week.
- Low chances (15-30%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms
  Friday through next week, mainly over the Coastal Plains.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
A mid level ridge from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and a
mid level low over the central and eastern Gulf persist today into
Friday. Seasonal PWs of 0.9 to 1.2 inches over our area and
subsidence will inhibit rain chances today. However, mainly the
HRRR shows a few showers. Subtle changes in the mid levels are
indicated for Friday. The southern Plains portion of the ridge lifts
a little to the north while the low drifts a little to the west.
This allows an area of above average PWs of 1.2 to 1.5 inches
currently over the lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast
to move west to over our area. Subsidence weakens and with heating,
isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible along
and east of the US 281 corridor Friday afternoon as noted in all
Hi-Res models. Will go above NBM guidance with 10-20 POPs.
Temperatures remain well above early October averages with lows
warming a little.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
This weekend, mid level troughing moves over the western states and
northern Plains shoving the ridge to over mid Atlantic region and
drawing the low to over the western Gulf. Some drying will keep rain
out of the forecast, except for slight chances each afternoon with
heating and the seabreeze near the Coastal Plains where the deeper
moisture lingers. Early to middle of next week, western troughing
lifts north absorbing the Gulf low and allowing the ridge to expand
back to the west to over the Plains. This allows deeper moisture to
flow over our area with slight chances of showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm over most areas. Temperatures remain well above early
October averages.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions through the TAF period. Clear skies overnight and
Thursday morning, with a scattered cumulus field developing in the
afternoon across portions of the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and
Hill Country. There is a very low chance (10% or less) of isolated
SHRA activity within this cumulus field 20Z-01Z. Coverage and
confidence is too low to include in the SAT/SSF/AUS TAFs. Variable
winds around or less than 5 KT for most locations overnight and
Thursday morning, becoming E to SE around 4-8KT in the afternoon
across the Rio Grande, I-35 corridor near SAT, and Coastal Plains
and E to NE across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor near AUS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Fuels are forecast to be dry to critically dry across most of
South Central Texas. With minimum relative humidities of 20 to 30
percent at least through Friday, locally elevated fire weather
conditions may be seen each afternoon. East to southeast surface
winds will generally be less than 10 mph limiting critical or
near-critical fire weather conditions. Minimum humidities will
recover to above 30 percent most areas this weekend into next
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  70  93  68 /   0   0  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  67  93  66 /   0   0  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  67  93  65 /   0   0  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            93  66  89  66 /   0   0  20   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  70  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  67  91  65 /   0   0  20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             95  67  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  67  94  65 /   0   0  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  68  92  66 /   0   0  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  70  93  69 /   0   0  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  71  95  70 /   0   0  20   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...76

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion