Hamel, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

599
FXUS63 KMPX 291048
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
548 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very warm temperatures this week.
- Dry conditions likely to persist until this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Much warmer weather is on the way as upper level ridging
continues to strengthen over the Midwest & low-level southerly
flow continues to increase, especially beginning midweek. The
really warm temperatures today look to be limited to west-
central & southwest Minnesota, where a bit of downsloping winds
off of the Buffalo Ridge could boost afternoon temperatures
near 90 degrees. Elsewhere temperatures will still be quite
warm in the low to mid 80s. High cloud cover will begin
increasing through the afternoon & overnight, in response to a
lobe of vorticity stretching northwards out of the central
plains. This upper level forcing coupled with an increasing low
level jet overnight could result in a few sprinkles or even
light showers overnight through Tuesday afternoon. Cloud bases
look to be quite high with a deep layer of dry air near the
ground though, so it`s unlikely we will see much in the way of
measurable precip. Mostly cloudy skies during the day will
likely limit daytime highs to around 80 degrees, despite
impressively warm temperatures aloft.
Ensemble guidance continues to depict temperature anomalies of
15-20 degrees above normal through the rest of the week, with
the heat peaking late in the week when anomalies of 20-25
degrees above normal look possible. While we look to fall short
of record highs on most days, afternoon highs in the mid 80s
look likely daily with even some 90s possible across western &
south- central Minnesota. Precipitation chances will continue to
be negligible with the strong ridging overhead, so we`ll likely
have to wait until at least this weekend when the jet amplifies
over the US-Canada border & flattens out the ridge. One
exception could be overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning,
when a weak warm front & strengthening low-level jet could
provide enough forcing for isolated showers & thunderstorms.
Models remain varied on solutions for how the weekend may
unfold, but nearly all guidance brings some system through the
region during the Friday to Sunday timeframe. Ensemble guidance
also shows at least medium (40-70%) probabilities of at least
0.10" of rain during this time, a decent signal at this time
range that we can expect at least some sort of precipitation
moving through the area. Our blended NBM PoPs show generic ~30%
chances of rain during this entire period, but that`s an
artifact of the timing spread amongst solutions at this range.
The bulk of the weekend should remain dry, but at least a few
hours of rain looks possible at some point during the weekend.
Temperatures should also be somewhat cooler over thew weekend
owing to the possible precip/cloud cover, & eventually return
closer to seasonable values (but still above-normal) early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Increasing high clouds through the day. Ceilings will gradually
lower Monday night into Tuesday morning but will remain VFR.
Southeasterly winds increase to near 10 kts late this morning &
through the afternoon, then drop below 5 kts after sunset.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind SSE 10G20 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 10G20 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chance PM -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 10G20 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...ETA

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion