Happy, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

753
FXUS64 KLUB 261726
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- Continued very warm and mostly dry through next week.
- A decaying upper low on Monday brings mostly cloudy skies and
   the coolest highs of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Classic fall weather remains on track through Saturday squarely
under an omega block. Even though H5 heights remain relatively
unchanged through Saturday, H7 values are forecast to jump 3 dam
which should translate to warmer highs than today. One caveat to
this concerns a gradual influx of mid and high clouds by daybreak
well downstream of an upper low churning over SOCAL. Some of these
clouds on the Caprock may prove thick enough to affect Saturday`s
highs, especially near the NM state line where enough top-down
saturation could even yield a few light showers. Any of this precip
will have to overcome sizable moisture deficits in the lowest 8k
feet or so, so our sliver of 20 PoPs near the border looks plenty
generous for now. Lows tonight were blended lower for most of our
usual cool suspects using some of the bias-corrected numbers. This
looks reasonable given light southerlies overnight and the fact that
higher clouds don`t arrive until closer to daybreak on the Caprock.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
The omega block from Saturday scoots east of our area during the
overnight hours which will open the door to even more mid and high
clouds and modestly cooler highs for Sunday. Similar to Saturday,
this moisture and slight chances for precip look best near the NM
border closer to a plume of monsoonal moisture. This moist plume
unfortunately dries up thereafter as the upper low minors out while
lifting northeast into the Nebraska Panhandle on Monday, so other
than mostly cloudy skies on Monday and cooler highs we don`t see
much hope for rain chances. Deeper and drier westerly by midweek
followed by weak ridging late in the week points to toasty highs in
the 90s for many areas which is thankfully short of daily records.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Continued VFR with light winds.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion