Harper, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

216
FXUS63 KICT 171903
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
203 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower and storm chances will increase again tonight and
  continue through Thursday.
- Dry conditions expected for Friday, with shower and storm
  chances returning by Saturday morning and continuing through
  the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Water vapor imagery currently shows one upper circulation over
southeast WY with another impulse lifting quickly over Northern
Nebraska. This wave is pushing a weak cold front south across
west/central KS and now stretches from North Central KS into
the OK Panhandle.
Scattered showers and storms produced by mid level theta-e advection
have been on the decrease over the last few hours. We should see
some additional storms develop late this afternoon where convergence
is best along the weak cold front/surface trough. The best chances
look to be over northwest OK with some of this activity potentially
making it into the southwest portion of our forecast area. Any storm
that develops late this afternoon/early evening would have enough
instability and shear to produce dime to quarter size hail and 50 to
60 mph winds.
There remains good model agreement that by this evening, another
vort lobe will be sinking southeast across northern CO and into
western KS by early Thu morning. Widespread showers and storms will
accompany the impulse as strong upper diffluence overspreads the area
along with increasing mid level moisture transport. Vort lobe is
expected to be fairly progressive and by 00z Fri, will be lifting
across northeast KS. So current thinking is that the best chance for
widespread precip will be early Thu morning through the afternoon
hours. By Thu evening, the bulk of the rain should be moving out of
the forecast area, with mainly only eastern KS holding onto rain
chances. Went ahead and removed most rain chances for Fri as the
upper wave moves over the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley.
As this shortwave departs, upper flow behind it will quickly turn
back to the west/southwest as a weak upper wave starts to move out
of the Central/Southern Rockies and across Southern KS/OK on Sat-Sat
night. This will allow for some 850-700mb moisture transport across
the area late Fri night into Sat, which will keep at least some
small shower/storm chances in through much of the weekend. The next
feature to key on will be a compact upper shortwave expected to
quickly track across the Northern Rockies Sun night and close off
into an upper low over the Northern/Central Plains by early Mon
evening. This should keep the better precip chances north of our
area for Mon night through Tue.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms continue to make their way
through the area early this afternoon. These should remain high-
based but may briefly result in MVFR visibilities due to heavy
rainfall at ICT and HUT.
After a brief lull in activity later this afternoon, shower and
thunderstorm coverage is expected to return after 00Z in south
central KS and around 05-06Z in central KS. Still a little unclear
where these will initiate so decided to keep as PROB30s for now at
all sites. Rain chances are anticipated to remain throughout the
night and to the end of the period, so decided to introduce VCSH
following the PROB30 groups. Could also see thunder after 12Z but
confidence in location is too low for a mention at any site at this
time.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion