Harris, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

387
FXUS63 KMPX 110534
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1234 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another round of fog expected overnight, though it should be
  less widespread and primarily confined to northeast MN and
  northwest WI.
- Temperatures will warm through the end of the week peaking in
  the mid to upper 80s on Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Regional radar this afternoon shows that low level stratus has
quickly cleared, with diurnal cu taking its place. Most places
will stay dry through tonight, with only a low chance for
sprinkles closer to central WI. With winds remaining light in
addition to the clearing skies, our saturated airmass will
provide a favorable setup again for radiation fog overnight
into Thursday morning. It does not look to be as widespread, and
the highest confidence is primarily over northeast MN and
northwest WI. A Dense Fog Advisory may needed, though confidence
in the extent southwards is too low to issue at this time.
Our dry period should continue through at least Friday with
large scale ridging centered over the Plains. CAMs do hint at
the potential for a couple rounds of convection along the
ridge, though that should remain across NoDak and northern MN
either day. Highs in the 80s will be common this weekend, and it
may actually feel quite humid with dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s.
It is looking more likely that a shortwave trough from the west
will start to break down our ridge by late this weekend. Though
there is no strong signal still, this will be our next window
to watch for active weather as southwesterly flow increases
aloft over the northern Plains. Highest PoPs come Sunday into
Monday as the associated surface low tracks northeast into
towards the Upper Midwest. That said, there is still quite a bit
of variability across long range guidance so chances are capped
at 30 to 40 percent. Near or slightly above normal temperatures
are expected to hold steady through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Focus for the 6z TAFs was to lock down windows for anticipated
visibility reductions over the next 8 or so hours. Hi-res
guidance continues to favor RNH/EAU as the most likely terminals
to observe LIFR or lower conditions due to dense fog. However,
there was some extra consideration given to the possible fog
setup at RWF/STC/MKT, so at the very least have TEMPOs for IFR
visibility. The window for peak visibility reductions is
between 9-14z. Lingering stratus is possible, especially over
RNH/EAU through mid to late morning. Otherwise, the remainder of
today will be VFR with light with southeasterly winds between
5-10 kts. May have a few gusts near 20kts at AXN. High clouds
stream in from the west this evening.
KMSP...No change to the TAF as the signal for fog/mist is
shallow on forecast soundings. Rest of the day will be quiet
with southeasterly winds between 5-10 kts.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR late. Wind S 10-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-
     Benton-Chisago-Dakota-Goodhue-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-
     Morrison-Sherburne-Washington.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for Barron-
     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Strus

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion