Hazel Run, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

028
FXUS63 KMPX 222336
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
636 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense Fog Advisory for portions of central MN tonight through
early Tuesday.
- Another round of showers and storms is expected along and south of
the I-90 corridor this afternoon and evening.
- Quiet weather for the rest of the week with temperatures in
  the 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
An upper-level trough situated over Lake Superior will prog slowly
to the northeast over the next several hours. A surface low was
located over southern MN with a stationary boundary extending over
to central Lake Superior and a cold front trailing behind down
through Nebraska. These features are expected to track to the east-
southeast through this afternoon. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms looks most probable to redevelop across extreme
southern and southeastern MN this afternoon and evening. Based off
of latest cams, isolated CI looks to occur as early as 2 or 3 PM
this afternoon with development trailing down along the surface
boundary to the southwest into northwestern IA. The SPC does have
this region in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe
thunderstorms as the convective environment does look to advertise
lapse rates around 7 deg/km and MLCAPE values 1000-2000 J/kg.
However, the best support for the strongest storms has seen a
noticeable southeastward shift over the last few runs of the
hi-Res guidance, thus the overall trend in PoPs appears to have
nudged southward over the MN/IA border. In order to keep
mentionable PoPs within southern MN, we deviated from the NBM
slightly by maintaining a blend of the previous forecast which
kept a mention of slight PoPs across southern MN. For any storm
that does manage to become severe would pose mainly a large hail
and damaging wind threat. But again, the best likelihood of
these threats look to be focused across northern Iowa.
Flow aloft veers to northerly with some minor deviations to
northwest/northeast over the rest of the week, alongside weak
surface high pressure bringing general subsidence across the region.
Fair weather cu can still be anticipated daily as dew points remain
in the 50s as mixing remains favorable. Which will also maintain
chances for overnight fog as temperatures fall to dew points with
efficient radiation cooling and a lack of surface winds under high
pressure. The fog will be the most dense earlier in the week behind
the showers, especially tonight. Visibilities will likely fall below
one quarter mile across north-central MN where a Dense Fog Advisory
is in effect from midnight tonight through 10 AM Tuesday. Depending
on fog development trends overnight, its likely the advisory may
need to be extended in coverage farther south across west-
central MN. Drying conditions will continue throughout the week
which will gradually suppress the fog coverage a bit more each
night.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, it looks to be a fairly
warm but overall quiet end to September, with predictability lower
as we head into October due to a lack of longer scale indicators.
For now, enjoy the warm weather while it lasts as October also
brings the autumnal equinox, marking the trend of rapidly losing
daylight as we slide closer to the winter months.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VFR expected for the next few hours into the early overnight
hours. Fog and low stratus will redevelop by Tuesday morning.
IFR to LIFR look most likely for south- central MN into west-
central WI as cigs fall to near 500 feet and visibilities reduce
in fog. Opted to continue the aggressiveness with respect to
fog (1/2sm visibilities) developing at RWF and STC where
greatest fog occurred this morning. Conditions should improve to
MVFR/VFR by late Tuesday morning into early afternoon. Light to
calm northeasterly winds overnight and through the day Tuesday.
KMSP...Expecting IFR stratus to develop again overnight. A dip
to LIFR conditions is possible by 7AM with ceilings flirting
with the 005 threshold. This lowering could last a few hours.
Amendments may be needed once again to catch up with the trend
as cigs will be right on the LIFR/IFR line. Conditions will
improve to VFR by early afternoon. Northeasterly winds near 5
knots throughout the period.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Tuesday
     for Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Todd.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...PV

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion