Henrietta, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

115
FXUS64 KOUN 111740
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1240 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
- Hot/above-normal temperatures today through the weekend.
- Next chance for rain/storms Saturday night into Sunday across
   portions of western Oklahoma and perhaps western-north Texas.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Hot and dry sensible conditions are likely areawide this
afternoon and evening. An upper ridge continues to expand and
spread eastward across the Plains today. A more expansive profile
of low to mid-90s afternoon high temperatures is expected given
less (near-zero) cloud cover compared to yesterday.
Ungar
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Friday will be another day with hot and dry surface conditions and
nil weather impact. Afternoon temperatures will once again run in
the low to mid-90s areawide with passing areas of high clouds and a
modest southerly breeze.
A broad upper trough will continue to meander eastward
towards/across the Great Divide by Saturday, with the expectation
for increasing cloud cover throughout the day. This may keep
temperatures "down" a touch (in the upper-80s) across western
portions of the forecast area.
By Saturday evening/early Sunday morning, chances for precipitation
will be on the increase across western Oklahoma/western-north Texas
as previous convection across the Southern High Plains slides
eastward. On average, guidance is trending a bit slower in the
progression of this expected activity, which may limit realized
rain/storm coverage more than our official forecast would
indicate. This trend will be watched over coming updates.
Ungar
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
The main trough axis starts moving in Sunday with POPs increasing
across northern and west-central Oklahoma and parts of western north
Texas.  Northwest Oklahoma may remain unstable enough for a
thunderstorm although mostly rain precipitation, much of it enhanced
as well during the morning hours by a low-level jet. POPs across our
west will gradually decrease as Sunday afternoon progresses although
instability could be sufficient for a few afternoon thunderstorms as
well.  Models suggest an Omega blocking pattern in the upper flow
across the northern half of the country with very weak ridging down
and over the Southern Plains next week. The weak ridging will keep
our temperatures slightly above normal early next week.  Models also
suggest the upper low over the western U.S. of this blocking system
opening as a trough and start digging into the Central & Southern
Plains by mid-week bringing a return of rain/storm chances to our
area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Today`s forecast will feature modest southerly winds (with some
afternoon gustiness in western Oklahoma) and mostly clear skies.
Day
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  93  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         67  96  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  68  95  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           67  93  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     66  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         67  94  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...14

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion