119 FXUS64 KOHX 281633 AFDOHXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1133 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- Dry (mostly) through the week.
- Very warm, well above normal temperatures, trending a little cooler late week.
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.SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
The trend of dry conditions with pleasant nights and very warm (or hot) days will continue. In fact, some spots may top 90 degrees the next couple of days which is about 10 degrees above normal. The cooldown each night will allow patchy fog to form, especially along the Plateau.
Of course, we are watching the tropics with TD 9 over the Bahamas and Humberto further out in the Atlantic. Humberto will stay well away from the mainland and the center of TD 9 (expected to become Hurricane Imelda) is expected to stay offshore. But rainfall with TD 9 will impact the East Coast. Those planning beach vacations from the Carolinas to Florida will want to monitor rainfall forecasts and especially ocean conditions for high surf and rip currents.
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.LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
As rainfall from TD 9 / Imelda impacts the East Coast Monday through Wednesday, a weak upper trough over the Southeast may draw some moisture inland, perhaps spreading a few showers into our Plateau counties by Tuesday. This is very uncertain, but it does not look like much rainfall if it does happen. Overall, models have been trending more eastward with rainfall forecasts.
Otherwise, dry high pressure will continue to be the dominant wx pattern through the week. Late week, a weak backdoor front will bring a modest cooling trend.
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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Patchy dense fog over the Plateau will lift by 14z. VFR conditions through the TAF period with quiet conditions. Northerly winds up to 12 knots this afternoon, otherwise light under 5 knots.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 87 62 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 87 59 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 80 57 81 57 / 0 0 10 10 Columbia 86 60 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 82 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 81 59 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 84 58 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 87 60 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 86 59 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
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.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Mueller
NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion