Hill Creek, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

251
FXUS64 KLZK 220644
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
144 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
-Strong to severe storms with multiple rounds posing a flash flood
 threat will be possible across central to northern Arkansas
 overnight through Monday morning.
-Areas of rainy conditions continuing through mid-week, with more
 widespread rains Tuesday into Wednesday.
-Cooling temperatures to at or below normal levels going into late
 this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Training showers and storms across portions of western Arkansas
(currrently the Crawford, Sebastian, Frankin, Logan and Johnson
County area) will pose a flash flood threat as cells continue to
form along a boundary that is in a favorable area for development
due to a strengthening LLJ across eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkanasas. Stronger storms will additionally pose a strong to
severe wind and small hail threat. CAM`s continue to struggle
with storm evolution/maintenance going into the morning hours, but
general thinking is showers and storms will continue to push
eastward across Arkansas through daybreak. At that point, more
uncertainty in storm evolution exists heading into the afternoon
hours, where CAM`s generally show a downward trend in activity,
but cannot rule out activity extending into portions of central to
southern Arkansas later today. Temperatures are expected to
generally cool back towards normal levels (low to mid-80s for
central Arkansas) through early week.
Heading into the middle of the week, a mid-level disturbance
moving across the Central Plains will aid in strengthening low
pressure across that general region, with a cold front moving
across Arkansas Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring the next
round of widespread rains to the region and, depending on timing,
could result in the opportunity for strong to severe storms along
and ahead of the front. Post front, much cooler temperatures are
expected to settle into the region, where highs in the 70s and 80s
will continue through the end of the week.
Quieter weather is anticipated going through this weekend and into
next week as high pressure builds across the region, resulting in
slight warming temperatures back towards normal levels.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Periods of shower and storm activity throughout the forecast
period will be the main aviation challenge. Depending on
organization and intensity of storms, gusty and erratic winds
along with visibility restrictions from RA/TSRA conditions will
be the main impacts. Current activity is favoring western to
northwestern Arkansas, thus higher chances over the next several
hours will favor the northern terminals should activity increase
across the forecast area. Otherwise, heading into tomorrow
morning, uncertainty still exists on storm evolution for central
to southern Arkansas, so kept TEMPO groups in for the time being
for any mention of RA/TSRA conditions. Should that scenario come
to frution, shower and storm activity is anticipated to be on the
downtrend going into the evening hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     84  66  82  67 /  80  60  80  90
Camden AR         88  69  91  70 /  40  20  40  60
Harrison AR       82  65  76  65 /  70  60  90  90
Hot Springs AR    85  68  88  68 /  70  30  60  80
Little Rock   AR  85  71  87  71 /  70  40  60  80
Monticello AR     91  71  93  72 /  30  20  30  50
Mount Ida AR      83  68  87  68 /  70  30  60  80
Mountain Home AR  83  66  78  65 /  70  50  90  90
Newport AR        84  69  83  69 /  80  60  80  90
Pine Bluff AR     88  70  91  70 /  50  30  40  60
Russellville AR   84  69  84  69 /  80  40  80  90
Searcy AR         85  68  86  69 /  80  50  80  80
Stuttgart AR      85  70  87  70 /  60  40  50  70
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion