Hollinger, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

161
FXUS63 KGID 191734
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1234 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms expected today. A few could become
  severe late this afternoon and into the evening, primarily in
  the SW half of the area.
- Only a low (20%) chance for a few thunderstorms on Saturday.
- Better chances (40-50%) for thunderstorms return to the area
  Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 436 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
There remains some potential for patchy fog to develop this
morning, mainly in southwestern parts of the area. There isn`t
much visible on satellite, but North Platte recently dipped to
1/4 to 1/2 mile visibility, indicating that there is some fog
in low-lying areas. Any fog that does develop into our area
should be very patchy and relatively short-lived.
At the same time,satellite shows low stratus slowly dipping
south over northern Nebraska. This cloud cover, combined with
additional convective development late this morning through this
afternoon may prevent some areas north of I-80 from even
reaching 70 degrees. Meanwhile, portions of northern Kansas
could easily climb into the low-mid 80s. Quite the temperature
gradient!
CAMs still generally depict one cluster of showers/storms
developing near or just SE of the Black Hills this morning in
response to a shortwave tracking around the large upper low.
This activity would eventually track into at least northern
parts of the forecast area late this morning into the early
afternoon. Previous models were more bullish on this impacting a
larger portion of the area...but the 06Z HRRR (and NAMnest to a
lesser extent) have backed off a bit. The lack of instability
will limit the severe risk with this activity.
Later this afternoon and evening, additional thunderstorms are
expected to initiate in southwest parts of the area in the
vicinity of a warm frontal boundary. Available instability is
still the biggest question regarding the strength of these
storms...but diurnal heating should result in MLCAPE values in
the 1000-1500J/kg range in at least localized areas. Strong
deep-layer shear (40-50kt) will be more than sufficient for
supercells supporting large hail and localized damaging wind.
The exact evolution of storms is still somewhat uncertain, but
the primary threat area is from Lexington to Mankato and areas
southwest...in the 5-10pm timeframe. Some non-severe elevated
storms could then linger overnight and into early Saturday
morning.
Low stratus is expected to develop Saturday morning, and
lingering cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cooler side
(low-mid 70s) on Saturday. There is still a low chance for
thunderstorms Saturday night, but this has been trending further
south.
Sunday and Monday trend warmer ahead of an approaching upper
low. Most areas will see highs in the 80s on Monday...about 5
degrees above normal for late September. Thunderstorm chances
then return Monday evening into Tuesday as this upper low
slowly pushes into the area. A few strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out, although mesoscale (and even some synoptic-
scale) details remain too uncertain to provide much specifics.
Tuesday/Wednesday trend cooler with lingering rain/tstorm
chances as the upper low slowly moves through the region.
Generally dry conditions are favored for Thursday/Friday,
although confidence is lower as global deterministic/ensemble
models really start diverge on the upper level pattern at this
point.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Showers and thunderstorms are expected at KGRI and KEAR during
the early to possibly middle afternoon hours. Winds will be
variable this afternoon and gusty within and near storms.
Northeast winds are expected by 03z with low ceilings and
possibly low visibilities moving in/developing tonight and
continuing into Saturday morning. The low ceilings may linger
over GRI until around or possibly after 18z but will move out of
KEAR around 15z or 16z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion