Honor, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

238
FXUS63 KAPX 091822
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
222 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Aside from scattered light showers possible at times through Wednesday
  morning across parts of the eastern U.P., mainly dry weather
  with high temperatures in the 70s expected this week.
- Occasional shower/storm chances return this weekend into early
  next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad upper-level trough axis is situated
from Hudson Bay southward through the upper MS valley down to the
Gulf Coast this afternoon. This wave is expected to cross the
forecast area late in the day Wednesday. A nearly stationary surface
boundary is currently draped from western Quebec back across the
western UP into southeast MN and northern IA. This boundary washes
out on approach over the next 18 hours with expansive high pressure
beginning to encompass much of the nation`s midsection.
Forecast Details: Isolated to scattered showers remain possible at
times tonight into Wednesday morning across parts of the eastern
U.P. with the highest PoPs favored west of Interstate 75 and more so
west of M-123. Otherwise, variable cloud cover south of the bridge
this afternoon with high temperatures area-wide ranging from the low-
mid 70s. Tonight`s lows generally spanning the mid-40s to mid-50s.
Any lingering showers across the U.P. Wednesday diminish through
midday/early afternoon with dry conditions anticipated area-wide
thereafter. High temps in eastern upper in the upper 60s to near 70
while those near Saginaw Bay expected to approach 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Pattern Forecast: Troughing aloft continues to trek east out of the
western Great Lakes Wednesday night with higher heights building in
from the west. Mid-upper level ridging expected to largely prevail
through the weekend, potentially all the way through early-mid next
week before beginning to break down. Surface high pressure dominates
through at least Friday, and potentially beyond. However,
uncertainty arrives late Friday into Saturday as a cold front surges
south from low pressure near Hudson/James Bay and a warm front
organizes upstream, tied to weak low pressure lee of the Rockies.
Northern MI expected to be sandwiched between these two features
with the best potential for some shower/storm activity associated
with isentropic ascent in advance of that upstream warm front.
Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather is expected
Wednesday night through much of the day Friday with high
temperatures favored to span the 70s area-wide under mostly to
partly clear skies.
Chances for showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder arrive as
early as Friday evening and continue at times into Saturday. While
current trends suggest this time frame is far from a wash out, the
bulk of what`s able to develop is favored west of I-75 associated
with deeper moisture and forcing.
Generally tranquil conditions expected to return to round out the
weekend into the start of next week -- again with high temperatures
in the 70s under a mix of sun and clouds.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF issuance period. Better
shower chances move in late tonight and continue through midday/
early Wednesday afternoon. Dry conditions are forecasted for
the remaining sites with KCIU lagging subsequently. Breezy
south- southwest winds become light tonight with sustained winds
5 knots or less through the period Wednesday, with occasional
10 knot gusts.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ095-
     098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...NSC

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion