Howard, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

529
FXUS63 KICT 070718
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
218 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably cool and dry for today and tonight.
- A few storms possible Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
- Warm-up back to normal expected for the latter half of the
  week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A surface high currently dominates the central part of the country.
Light winds, partly cloud skies, and mild temperatures will continue
in the wake of the potent frontal boundary from a couple days ago.
While our weather is still primarily influenced by the deep upper
trough across the Great Lakes Region, the upper ridge to our west is
beginning to build and shift east. For this afternoon, this means
the gradual warming trend will get underway with highs across the
area reaching into the upper 70s. With dewpoints remaining in the
50s, overnight lows tonight will still manage to dip down into the
middle to upper 50s.
For Monday and Monday night, we have a relatively decent shot at
seeing some additional showers and thunderstorms develop and move
east across the state as a upper level shortwave traverses the
Central Plains. We`re currently not anticipating severe weather with
this activity as the better instability and shear will be located
across western and central Kansas while the better forcing from the
shortwave will be situated over eastern Kansas. Despite this, the
1500-200 J/kg of CAPE and shear upwards of 40 kts will still be able
to sustain a few run of the mill thunderstorms. It looks like this
activity will develop across central Kansas during the afternoon
hours and move eastward through the evening and into the overnight.
There`s still a little bit of time for all the pieces of the puzzle
to come together before we pinpoint exact timing and location of
highest impacts, but will maintain 30-40 POPs for much of the area
with highest chances across northern portions of the forecast area.
As we move through the week, the ridge to our west will continue to
build back over the region. This will support the gradual warming
trend with highs in the lower 80s for Tuesday and temperatures
nearing normal through the end of the week and into the weekend with
highs in the middle to upper 80s. Overnight lows will stabilize in
the 60s through the end of the period. With the upper ridge parking
over the Central and Southern Plains by Wednesday, it will
effectively shut down precip chances for the rest of the forecast
time frame. This will lead to pleasantly warm and dry weather for
the end of the week and weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Light winds
will continue through the overnight hours. Southerly winds will
pick up after 17z with gusts up to 20 kts mainly at RSL and GBD.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...GC

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion