Howell, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

621
FXUS63 KABR 200902
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
402 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Much of the rainfall has ended aside from isolated light
  showers for eastern areas. Focus turns to fog potential this
  morning and again tonight into Sunday morning. Visibility may be
  reduced to below 1 mile at times.
- Temperatures are expected to warm up through the weekend, with
  high temperatures reaching the upper 70s on Monday, around 5
  degrees above normal. Highs will become near-normal by the
  middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Low pressure is centered over southeast ND early this morning, with
just some wrap-around light showers/sprinkles remaining over parts
of the eastern CWA. Still an abundance of cloud cover that stretches
all the way west to the UNR/ABR CWA border. Fog has been slow to
form this morning, with most web cams and obs showing minimal
visibility reductions. Still expect some lowering of ceilings
through sunrise, along with increased potential for fog, so will
keep this in the forecast through the morning.
As we progress through the daytime hours, will likely see at least
isolated coverage of light showers over the eastern CWA today so
have included 20-30 percent chances for this, although any
additional precipitation will be light and less than a quarter inch.
As for the clouds, those look to stick around much of the day, with
only a slow erosion from west to east through the day. This is shown
on the HREF cloud cover ensemble mean and followed that closely for
the sky forecast through tonight. It may not be until
evening/overnight until the eastern CWA starts to see skies clear
out. As conditions do start to clear out from west to east into the
evening/overnight hours, with light winds and wet soils, look for
fog to be a threat once again and have continued the mention of this
in the forecast.
Finally some drier and warmer conditions arrive on Sunday, along
with increasing sunshine. With a fairly warm air mass in place
(850mb temps in the mid teens C), it appears highs will rise into
the 70s for most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
An upper-level shortwave helps to create an area of lower pressure
at the surface over eastern WY and MT Sunday. Sunday evening
overnight into Monday, the models show this low tracking southeast,
though there are variations in the timing as well as the locations
this low tracks to. Some models take the low over south central SD
while other move it over northern NE. The difference in locations of
the surface low pressure creates different situations with the
chances for showers and storms over central and south central SD. If
the low is over/around south central SD, then showers/storms move
into counties west of the Missouri River as well as south central SD
late Monday afternoon into the evening and then rain chances stay
over south central SD overnight into Tuesday morning. If the low is
further south over northern NE, then the showers and storms are
forecast mainly over south central SD overnight, missing areas in
north central SD. An eye will be kept on this to see which situation
starts to pan out more than the other and how far to the north of
south central SD the chance for showers and storms will be.
After Tuesday morning, the upper-levels push the shortwave to the
east, and a ridge starts to move towards SD. The models do vary the
strength and amplitude of the ridge, which then causes differences
in high pressure at the surface moving over central and eastern SD
during the middle and end of the work week. The higher pressure does
look to help keep the chance of rain out of central and eastern SD
after Tuesday. The mid-levels are not showing any significant
temperature advection into the area, which helps to keep
temperatures fairly constant during the work week. High temperatures
look to be around normal to about 5 degrees warmer than normal for
this time of the year, leading to highs in the low to mid 70s for
central and eastern SD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
MVFR/IFR CIGs will affect the region through much of the TAF
period, with areas of FG/BR reducing VSBY to IFR potentially.
Light showers are still possible for KATY during the early morning
hours as well, with lower confidence for the other terminals.
Look for gradual improvement for CIGs/VSBY through the day
Saturday, although CIGs likely won`t reach VFR until late in the
day. Gradual clearing from west to east expected, so KMBG/KPIR
will improve first before KABR/KATY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...TMT

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion