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Hudson Lake, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

796
FXUS63 KIWX 230552
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 152 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dense fog advisory is in effect for Northwest Ohio and portions of Indiana and Lower Michigan. Visibility will drop to one quarter to one half mile in dense fog.

- An active weather period will continue through Friday with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.

- High temperatures will be in the 70s for the remainder of the week.

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.UPDATE... Issued at 1225 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Issued a dense fog advisory just before midnight for northwest Ohio counties; Hillsdale County, MI; and Indiana counties generally along/east of I 69 in the north; then along/south of US 24 elsewhere. Winds are calm with a decent inversion developing, trapping moisture from yesterdays rain close to the surface. Visibilities below 1SM have already been intermittently observed near Marion, IN and in much of NW Ohio--especially near Defiance, Ottawa, and Fulton, OH. Otherwise, reports of 1.5 to 3SM have been more common. As the inversion deepens overnight expect the patchy nature to become more widespread. Left out NW IN/SW Lower MI out for now given less low level moisture (rain was mostly to the E-SE today), slightly stronger flow (around 5 knots), and the potential for rain showers towards morning with the convective complex currently over Lake Michigan. Most guidance has this feature dying out right on our doorstep or north, but it is unclear as to whether or not any outflow boundaries move in and kick off some additional rain showers or increase the winds briefly. Most of the guidance keeps KSBN out of the foggy conditions, with visibility only potentially dropping to 5-6SM towards 12z. Conversely, KFWA guidance shows visibilities of 1/4 to 1/2SM possibly until 9 am or so. Have our dense fog advisory ending at 14z Tuesday for now, but may need to expand the time for a few counties if conditions actually linger into the 15-16z time frame. Will re-evaluate at the 4-5 am forecast update.

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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

A positively tilted trof will settle south across the Upper Great Lakes region. This system will bring numerous showers to the forecast area as well as an occasional chance for a thunderstorm at times. WPC rainfall amounts of generally 1.00" to 1.50" are forecast through Friday. Heavier rainfall amounts so far today (as of 1 AM EDT) have been generally 0.25" to 0.50" over northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. A short break in the heavier rain is expected before another upper level trof brings more rain Tuesday. Moderate drought conditions (D1) covered most of northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. Ft Wayne observed rainfall amounts since August 1st has been less than 2 inches (1.90) which is the 2nd driest in 130 years. So far, the rain that has fallen has not been sufficient to improve drought conditions.

While isolated to scattered showers are possible at time through Tuesday morning, more organized rainfall should develop Tuesday afternoon with the next impulse that moves across the area. The new WPC forecast indicates around a half inch of additional rain through 8pm Wednesday evening is forecast. Limited impacts are expected with this precipitation. Very minor rises on some rivers have been noted with this past round of rain. This next round of rain into Wednesday night should do little to effect river conditions.

Otherwise, dry weather if forecast from Friday night into early next week. Temperatures are expected to be near normal.

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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Fog will continue to develop overnight particularly along and east of the Interstate 69 corridor. Yesterday`s rainfall combined with development of a weak sfc ridge across the region early this morning will provide favorable conditions for fog development overnight. Will continue with 1/4 to 1/2SM forecast at KFWA in the 08Z-13Z timeframe. Fog should improve to an MVFR stratus deck Tuesday morning before dissipating. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms continue this morning from southern Wisconsin into west central MI in a warm advection regime downstream of next larger scale upper trough. Some of these showers may tend to drop south and affect KSBN area after 09Z but confidence remains low. This short wave may provide a favorable timing for a period of showers and perhaps an isolated storm at KFWA early this afternoon. Additional showers and storms are expected toward the end of this forecast valid period as low level convergence gradually strengthens overnight in response to additional short waves emanating from Rockies short wave.

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.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ007>009- 017-018-020-022>027-032>034. OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002- 004-005-015-016-024-025. MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MIZ081. MARINE...None.

&&

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UPDATE...MCD DISCUSSION...Skipper AVIATION...Marsili

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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