Huntley, Wyoming Weather Forecast Discussion

084
FXUS65 KCYS 191746
AFDCYS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1146 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog are possible over the High Plains along and north
  of the North Platte River Valley Friday morning.
- Unsettled conditions return late in the weekend and early next
  week with widespread gusty winds and precipitation expected
  but forecast confidence is still on the low side.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
An upper-level shortwave is currently grazing the northeast corner
of the CWA, with precipitation in South Dakota about to move into
the northern Nebraska panhandle. Light to moderate rain will be
likely in and around Chadron over the next few hours, with a few
rumbles of thunder possible. Once the precipitation moves through,
low stratus and fog may also develop in the northern Nebraska
panhandle. Brief upslope flow with more northerly winds, combined
with increased moisture will lead to the stratus and fog. Any clouds
and fog that develop will likely dissipate by the afternoon as winds
turn more westerly. Westerly winds will also usher in warmer
temperatures aloft, leading to high temperatures that are about 5
degrees warmer than Thursday. Highs will be in the 70s, which is
about average for this time of year. Sun during he middle of the day
will also help the day feel quite pleasant. By late afternoon,
clouds will begin to move in from the southwest as another weak
shortwave approaches.
Another pleasant day is expected on Saturday with high temperatures
expected to be 2 to 5 degrees warmer than Friday. Although
there will likely be clouds to start the day, the majority of
them will clear out by the afternoon. Clouds will linger over
the high terrain throughout the day due to increased moisture
from the shortwave. The shortwave will also provide a bit of
lift needed to generate some high terrain showers during the
afternoon and evening. A few showers may make it into the
adjacent plains, but will not be impactful.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Long term is becoming more active as we see models continue to
find agreement on the placement of a strong system that will
impact our region late in the weekend and early next week,
bringing gusty winds and widespread precipitation.
The weekend will see some periods of activity as a ridge tries
to settle in, but a passing shortwave will disrupt it enough to
keep areas of precipitation in our western and mountain zones
alongside an enhanced pressure gradient producing gusty winds.
It does look like the ridge will have enough influence to at
least allow for some warming, with temperatures in the 70`s to
80`s on Saturday and near widespread 80`s east of I-25 on
Sunday. But then on Monday, an upper level low is now on track
to move across all of Wyoming and bring enhanced winds
alongside areas of precipitation through the start of the week.
The original track of this system was a bit further to our north
and east keeping the bulk of significant activity out of our
CWA, but models and ensembles are now starting to shift this
system further south and more across Wyoming as of this
afternoon. That isn`t to say that all models are in agreement on
this feature, and there still lies enough uncertainty in this
track based on ensembles that there is low to moderate
confidence in the forecast overall. The NBM remains on the low
side for precipitation due to it`s slower latency, but with
confidence still low alongside collaboration with our
neighbors, we have elected to keep the base data for the
forecast at this time. What is currently expected is that
unsettled conditions are likely for the start of the work week,
with areas of breezy winds and precipitation possible dependent
upon the track of the system, with cooler conditions becoming
likely as we drop back into the 60`s and 70`s with the passage
of this system. As this feature departs to end the long term on
Wednesday, we should see some warming returning to the region
under clearer conditions, with highs in the 80`s appearing once
again.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Mostly clear
skies currently will give way to some FEW to SCT high level
clouds moving into the region later today into tomorrow morning,
becoming mid level and BKN. Winds generally 5 to 15 knots all
sites though occasional breeziness is possible. A few lower
level clouds could impact KSNY/KAIA tomorrow morning, but not
currently expecting reduced flight categories from this.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...CG

NWS CYS Office Area Forecast Discussion