592 FXUS64 KMOB 181722 AFDMOBArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1222 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Now through Tuesday...
A closed upper low over the East Coast opens, leaving a weakening upper trough centered along the East Coast into the weekend. This will keep the Southeast under dry northeasterly upper flow into the weekend. A weak surface boundary moves south over the Southeast THursday into Thursday night, but with a dry airmass over the region, any rain chances are expected to be north of the forecast area. Shortwave energy moving east of the Mississippi River digs an upper trough over the river through the weekend, with the trough shifting east to over the Eastern Conus. A surface ridge develops over the Appalachians, then builds southwest through the rest of the week into the weekend, bringing east to southeast low level flow to the Southeast, and Gulf and Atlantic moisture inland over the region. The forecast area will see an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms in the coming week with the increase in moisture and the approaching upper trough.
A weak ridge building over the Southeast the rest of the week will bring high temperatures rising to well above seasonal norms through the forecast, with around 90s expected over most of the forecast area Wednesday, then rising to the low to mid 90s by Saturday. The advancing upper trough will drop high temperatures back into the upper 80s to around 90 by Monday. More seasonal low temperatures in the mod 60s to near 70 Wednesday night to the upper 60s to low 70s for the rest of the forecast.
Weak, diurnally driven flow and decreasing tidal cycle will keep the risk of Rip Currents Low through the weekend into the coming week. /16
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the period. /13
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.MARINE... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /16
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 68 93 69 94 70 91 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 72 92 73 92 73 89 72 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Destin 73 89 73 89 73 88 72 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 Evergreen 67 95 65 96 66 93 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 67 93 67 94 67 93 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Camden 68 93 67 94 68 92 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Crestview 66 94 66 94 67 92 66 90 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 20
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.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. &&
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion