Inman, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

386
FXUS62 KGSP 291744
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
144 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will affect the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia into Tuesday as a frontal
boundary weakens. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Imelda will drift north
of the Bahamas. The system is expected to slow down and turn east
and away from the Florida coast by late Tuesday. The system will
then move further out over the Atlantic as broad high pressure
builds over our region from the north.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1253 PM EDT Monday: Weak and ragged shower bands have
worked into the I-77 corridor and will spread west through the
rest of the afternoon and evening. Current mesoanalysis shows a
nice 850mb-700mb Atlantic Fetch moving into the CWFA in accordance
with the shower activity. Surface high parked over the Lower Great
Lakes region support a wedge-like configuration over the area,
bringing in stable northeasterly flow. The leading edge of the
initial broken shower band seems to be associated where low-level
convergence is shifting westward as northeasterly surface winds
veer easterly a couple thousand feet in altitude. Aloft, the trough
axis to the west supports a nice jet streak on the leeside, which
is helping to stream mid- to upper-level clouds in association with
Tropical Storm Imelda, which is currently located over the Bahamas
and is helping to filter in better moisture as the coastal front
retrogrades towards the area. With multiple features assisting
to provide good forcing, expect for scattered shower activity to
linger through the evening and into the overnight period. Very
stable airmass suggests that rainfall rates remain on the lighter
side, which should keep most of the area from receiving a complete
wash out. With extensive cloud cover and elevated rain chances,
expect overnight lows to run ~5 degrees below normal.
Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to start making a right
turn further out to sea as it induces the Fujiwhara effect with
Hurricane Humberto as it slides just west of Bermuda and begins
to track northeast on Tuesday. Deeper low-level subsidence begins
to cutoff the Atlantic Fetch as a result, while overall forcing
begins to weaken as well. With that being said, shower coverage will
begin to dwindle during the day Tuesday, but with the trough axis
still hovering over the area, additional shower and thunderstorms
activity can`t be ruled out, mainly across the mountains and
foothills. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will be dependent on how
quick cloud cover can scatter out, but nothing suggests that this
process will occur quickly, especially in the western Piedmont of
North Carolina where the better available low-level moisture will
be located. Expect temperatures to remain 5 to almost 10 degrees
below normal, with the exception of the Upper Savannah and Little
TN Valley where better insolation could lead to warmer temperatures
compared to the rest of the CWFA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Monday: Dry and cool high pressure slides south
out of Canada into the Northeastern states and down the Eastern
Seaboard thru Thursday. The dry NELY flow should cut off PoPs across
the forecast area early Tuesday evening, with clearing skies and
mountain valley fog developing by daybreak Wednesday. Quiet weather
will then dominate, with temps slightly above normal Wednesday,
then cooling to slightly below normal Thursday. Marginally breezy
NE winds expected across the Piedmont both days.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Monday: Models are in pretty good agreement
on an upper ridge persisting across the eastern CONUS thru the
medium range, with the center of sfc high pressure settling over
the Mid-Atlantic. Dry conditions are likely to continue into the
upcoming weekend, but with easterly flow beginning to pick up
a little moisture, could see increasing clouds and slight rain
chances late in the weekend or early next week. The latest NBM
keeps sub-20% PoPs thru Sunday night. Temps will start out a little
chilly in the mountains Friday morning, with lows in the 40s,
while Piedmont may see lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. From
there, temps will begin a slow warming trend from a few deg below
normal to around normal by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Nice moisture fetch off the Atlantic is
bringing in low stratus and precipitation, which has already reached
KCLT/KGSP/KGMU and will spread across the rest of the terminals over
the next few hours. MVFR cigs have filtered in across most of the
terminals and will continue a slow crash to IFR through the
afternoon and evening. Scattered showers remain in place through the
overnight hours, with the best chances being over the NC terminals.
Kept a prevailing SHRA or VCSH with associated restrictions mention
at all terminals through around daybreak Tuesday. Northeasterly
winds at 6-12 kts will continue with low-end gusts being possible
through much of the forecast period. IFR cigs will stick around
overnight and through the morning hours Tuesday before slowly
lifting and scattering by Tuesday afternoon. Can`t rule out LIFR
during this time frame as well. Another round of showers are
possible Tuesday afternoon, but not currently placed in the TAF with
the 18Z cutoff time.
Outlook: Lingering restrictions are possible Tuesday night, but
drier air is expected from Wednesday onward. VFR conditions will
prevail, with the exception of early morning fog and low stratus
in the mountain valleys each day.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...ARK

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion