Ira, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

922
FXUS64 KMAF 131121
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
- Low to medium (20%-60%) probability of showers/storms developing
  across southeastern New Mexico, expanding into the central
  Permian Basin down to the Big Bend today.
- Low to medium (10-50%) rain chances remain in the forecast
  Sunday and Monday. Best rain chances can be found in and near
  the higher terrain both days.
- Highs in the 80s to lower 90s for most of the area persist into
  next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Current radar shows weak echoes approaching Eddy and Culberson
counties this morning from an approaching upper level trough over
the western United States. Instability and shear increase over
southeastern New Mexico throughout the day though models show
these values will be very marginal for any type of severe weather
activity. Therefore general showers and thunderstorms are expected
and will keep an eye out for one or two outliers that could become
strong. The convection should slowly spread east into the Permian
Basin overnight and into Sunday as the upper trough reaches the
northern Great Plains. Activity is expected to diminish as it
moves east as the upper low begins lifting northeast taking the
best lift away from our area. The best chance for accumulating
rainfall amounts will be in southeastern New Mexico and the upper
Trans Pecos down to the Big Bend while areas farther east will
struggle to see a tenth of an inch. The increasing clouds and
showers will keep highs in the 80s to near 90 degrees.
Hennig
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Rain chances continue in the Guadalupe and Davis mountains on
Monday despite a more stable atmosphere due to help from
orographic lift. Other lower elevation areas see their rain
chances drop off with no chance for rain the remainder of the
week. Global deterministic long range models show various
solutions that indicate there could be a chance for rain later in
the week from a weak short wave trough but timing, strength, and
location are so varied these rain chances are not shown in the
ensemble model guidance. A persistent weak upper high in place
over West Texas next week prevents much variation in temperatures
with the 80s to low 90s repeating each day.
Hennig
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals. Showers with some embedded
thunderstorms are forecast to move across southeast New Mexico, the
Trans Pecos, and the Permian Basin during the day Saturday.
Confidence remains low in the exact timing and positioning of this
activity. As such, have opted to keep -TSRA PROB30s for CNM, HOB,
PEQ, and INK (despite most activity being -SHRA). These sites have
the highest chances of seeing any impacts from showers and
thunderstorms. Chances will continue until at least midnight
Sunday. Amendments will be made if needed.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  70  87  67 /  10  20  50  20
Carlsbad                 86  65  89  65 /  60  50  20  10
Dryden                   92  72  89  70 /  10  10  40  10
Fort Stockton            90  69  89  67 /  30  20  60  10
Guadalupe Pass           79  61  81  62 /  70  50  20  10
Hobbs                    84  64  86  63 /  50  50  30  10
Marfa                    82  60  82  59 /  50  40  60  20
Midland Intl Airport     90  70  88  68 /  10  30  50  20
Odessa                   88  69  87  67 /  10  30  50  10
Wink                     88  68  89  66 /  30  50  40  10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...55

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion