Irondale, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

687
FXUS61 KPBZ 172323 AAA
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
723 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain warm and mostly-dry weather into
the weekend. Rain chances return to the forecast next week,
though the chance for widespread wetting rain remains low.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Continued above-normal temperature
- Areas of fog possible late tonight, especially in valleys
---------------------------------------------------------------
Eastern-CONUS low pressure will lift along the Atlantic Seaboard
later today and tonight, degrading into an open wave over the
nern CONUS by 12Z Thu. Most of its associated cloud cover will
depart with the system, leaving a mostly-clear evening and
overnight period. The combination of clear sky, light wind, and
lingering surface moisture should support valley-based fog
overnight (if not broader in coverage), and the HREF is showing
a moderate signal (40-50% probability of below 0.5 mi
visibility) for some locations north and east of Pittsburgh,
especially in a corridor from Connellsville to Dubois PA, and
from Franklin PA to Youngstown OH. Ideal radiational-cooling
conditions are likely to support low temperature close to
climatology (in the low-mid 50s).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mostly dry weather and above-normal temperatures continue
--------------------------------------------------------------
The departing trough kicks off of the New England coast on
Thursday. Meanwhile, the blocking ridge centered over the lower
Mississippi Valley/western Great Lakes today makes slow eastward
progress with time and sets up shop over the Middle and Upper
Ohio Valley by Friday. At the surface, a weak boundary will
likely settle into our region before stalling out. A few model
solutions actually spit out some light QPF with this front
Friday/Friday night. The NBM carries sub-15 PoPs through Friday
night for now, and will ride with that given the dry airmass
that needs to be overcome, as well as the dearth of support.
Perhaps some minimal precipitation mention might be needed once
higher-res CAMs get a hold of the front. So, the forecast
continues the extended run of dry weather through Friday night.
Warm temperatures are forecast across the board Thursday with
plenty of sun and building heights, with widespread highs in the
lower and middle 80s. Highs will be a little more subdued north
of US-422 on Friday behind the front, backing off to the upper
70s/around 80, while highs to the south remain around 10 degrees
above normal. Similar trends will be seen with overnight lows,
although they will be a bit closer to climatology.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Still mostly dry and warmer than normal through the weekend
- Slight uptick in rain chances next week
- Temperatures remain above normal Monday through Wednesday,
  albeit with a slight downward trend
------------------------------------------------------------------
Despite the frontal boundary wavering in our region, a largely
dry pattern is forecast for Saturday as the upper ridge axis
crosses, with high temperatures similar to Friday. However,
there is a bit better potential for a light shower or two in the
ridges southeast of Pittsburgh, with better indications of
moisture and modest low-level convergence. Still, chances of a
wetting rain from this activity remain under 15 percent, so any
meaningful dent in the developing drought is unlikely.
Ensembles/cluster analysis continue to show a slower trend with
the progress of the next upstream trough, with the axis
progressing from the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday to just
the Western/Central Great Lakes by Tuesday. Some solutions even
suggest the development of a cutoff upper low somewhere over the
eastern Plains. This trend, in turn, results in just a slow
increase to minimal PoPs, with slight chance values northwest of
Pittsburgh Sunday night/Monday, before eventually overspreading
the area Tuesday/Wednesday. QPF expectations are not high. The
NBM shows a 40-60 percent chance of 0.10" or more during the
72-hour period ending at 12Z Thursday. With increasing rainfall
deficits, we will need healthier precipitation totals to put a
better dent in the dryness.
Overall, above-normal temperatures continue to be the
expectation through the middle of next week. Still, with the
slowly falling heights and increasing cloud cover potential, a
modest downward trend is the most likely scenario. The 25th-75th
percentile spreads do increase through this period, indicating
increasing uncertainty in the ultimate values. This is
reasonable given the range of potential solutions with the
upstream trough.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the TAF
period in the wake of a departing ern-CONUS low pressure system.
The only period that bears moderate (40-60% chance) probability
for sub-VFR conditions is 18/0700-1300Z, when fog/low stratus
become a possibility. Lingering moisture advected over the
Appalachians by the departing low will support saturation late
tonight as radiational cooling is maximized.
Hi-res forecast ensemble shows a reasonable signal for fog
potential early Thu morning, favoring areas east of I-79, along
I-80 and within some river valleys. Probabilities suggest that
restrictions are more likely tied to reduced visibility
(30-40% prob of vsby below 0.5SM between 08z-12z) with a lower
likelihood of stratus development (20-30% prob for IFR cigs).
Deep mixing quickly after sunrise amid full sun should erode any
fog/cigs by 18/1400Z, with a modest cu field possible in the
afternoon amid otherwise light wly/nwly wind and VFR conditions.
.OUTLOOK....
VFR is favored under the influence of high pressure with
localized morning river-valley fog through Sat. The exception
is increasing probabilities for a weak cold front sagging into
nwrn PA Fri morning that may lead to MVFR cigs (30-50% likelihood
at FKL/DUJ).
Approach of an upper-level trough may foster low-probability
rain/sprinkles Sun/Mon, favoring locations northwest of
Pittsburgh, but VFR is likely to persist.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kramar/CL
NEAR TERM...Kramar/CL
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...Kramar/Frazier

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion