Joelton, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

739
FXUS64 KOHX 251032
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
532 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- Medium rain and thunderstorm chances through today. Storms will
  produce heavy rain with a low chance of localized minor
  flooding.
- Low rain chances for the eastern third of the area over the
  weekend. Most of the area will be dry.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 525 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Well, the decision to stay away from a Flash Flood Watch yesterday
showed to be a prudent one as shower and storm coverage was much
less than the HREF and NBM might have otherwise suggested. As we
move into today, CAMs continue to suggest scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop once again, especially this afternoon,
and start to fade this evening as a weak frontal boundary makes
its way through the area. Instability will be on the low side,
which is good, because shear values will be elevated. For this
reason, the wind risk is low, but any storms will be gushers, like
we`ve seen the last couple of days. With the break in heavy
rains, we should be able to withstand a few inches in any given
area without any major concerns for flooding. Even for those who
don`t see rain today, it`ll be cloudy and afternoon highs will
struggle to climb into the low 80s. All in all, this week hasn`t
been too bad and all the recent rain should put a dent in the
drought monitor, if not with today`s update, definitely by next
week`s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Showers and storms continue this evening with a focus in the
northwest which is in the vicinity of an elongated, weak surface low
ahead of the positive-tilted upper trough. The surface front will
begin to move into the western portion of the area around dawn and
progress eastward through the afternoon hours. Scattered showers and
storms will continue to be possible even after the surface front
moves through as the upper trough lags behind. The moisture doesn`t
look as rich on Thursday compared to Tuesday and Wednesday. PWAT
values will be in the 1.4-1.7" range. CAMs do show some pockets of 1-
2" rainfall totals through Thursday evening, but we should be able
to handle this without any major flooding issues.
As the trough axis approaches the area, some energy will be
cutoff and left behind. Where this happens is still a little
uncertain. It will be close enough to the area to continue the low
chance of showers for the plateau on Friday. Football games Friday
night should not be a washout for those on the plateau as any
showers around will decrease after sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The low rain chances will continue through the weekend as some
upper level energy remains in the region. As we move
into next week, eyes will be in the Atlantic as two potential
tropical systems begin their northern track into the mid latitudes.
Some of the moisture from the tropical systems might be bled into
our eastern half of the area producing some low rain chances.
Otherwise, once we get through Thursday evening, the majority of the
area looks like it will be dry through the rest of the forecast.
Conditions will be comfortable on Friday and Saturday with lows in
the 50s and highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. As we get to Sunday
and into next week, temperatures look to be a couple degrees above
normal to end September with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Mainly VFR conditions at issuance, but cigs are expected to drop
to MVFR then IFR over the next several hours at all mid-state
terminals. Some improvement back to MVFR should be seen by
16-18Z/Thu, then VFR for CKV/BNA, but CSV/SRB look to fall back
into IFR after 00Z/Fri. Winds will be light and shift around to
the northwest after sunrise Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      82  63  82  60 /  60  20  10  10
Clarksville    80  59  81  56 /  50  10  10   0
Crossville     74  60  74  57 /  70  30  30  20
Columbia       81  61  80  58 /  60  30  10  10
Cookeville     77  62  76  58 /  60  30  10  10
Jamestown      75  61  74  58 /  70  20  10  20
Lawrenceburg   80  61  78  57 /  60  30  10  10
Murfreesboro   81  63  79  59 /  60  30  10  10
Waverly        78  57  79  55 /  50  20  10   0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Unger

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion