Jones, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

867
FXUS64 KOUN 071754
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- Mild weather continues through Monday, followed by a warmup.
- A few strong storms possible late Monday afternoon and evening.
- Chances for storms late night through Monday night, mainly
   northern and western Oklahoma.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Late this morning, water vapor imagery indicated a narrow band of
mid and upper level moisture that extends from western Kansas
into parts of western Montana (northern Rockies). This area
generally represent the dividing line between broad cyclonic flow
across the eastern half of the country, and a ridge axis that is
nearly oriented along the Continental Divide. Within this band
there is at least one well defined spin over eastern Colorado and
perhaps another taking shape over parts of Wyoming. Models are in
general agreement in tracking this feature into western Kansas/western
Oklahoma this afternoon into the overnight hours. A fairly strong
low-level jet (35-40 kts) will develop this evening across the
Panhandles and western Kansas with increasing mid-level warm
advection overnight. This should result in at least widely
scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms, especially across
northwestern Oklahoma. This should may occur late this evening
into the overnight hours. Per model soundings, elevated
instability will range from about 500-1000 J/kg. It appears the
effective shear should be stronger to our north and west, but may
be sufficient for a strong storm or two if the higher values of
instability materialize.
Meanwhile, temperatures are still expected to reach the upper 70s to
mid 80s this afternoon with a mainly light southeasterly wind.
Although clouds have been on the decrease, mid and high clouds
should increase across parts of northern and western Oklahoma
through the evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Still some uncertainties with how the weather will evolve Monday
into Monday night.  It`s certainly possible scattered showers and
storms will be ongoing across parts of western and northern Oklahoma
early Monday morning (sunrise). The precipitation should
gradually decrease through the morning/early afternoon as the
precipitation encounters drier air to the east and the low-level
jet weakens. Other models keep strong storms going into the
afternoon with a general movement to the south (perhaps less
likely).
Perhaps another compact disturbance will result in additional showers
and storms Monday evening into early Tuesday. If this occurs,
storms will likely develop by early evening and should impact
parts of northern Oklahoma (perhaps central Oklahoma late
evening/overnight). Although the effective shear could be
marginal, enough instability may develop for a few strong to
severe storms. Showers and storms may linger through the morning
Tuesday, but the mid-level ridge axis is expected to shift closer
to the southern Plains during the day. This should help keep
showers and thunderstorms more isolated Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Models still predict the ridge will build over the southern
Plains by at least late Wednesday into Thursday. This should bring
mainly warmer and drier weather Thursday into Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
As we move though the middle and latter part of the upcoming week,
upper ridge will dominate the weather across Texas northward through
Oklahoma. Main storm track will remain to our west and north around
this ridge. From Wednesday into at least the first half of next
weekend looks to remain dry with temperatures back around or
slightly above normal for early/mid September with upper 80s and low
to middle 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Low clouds and fog from this morning continues to burn off and
expect VFR conditions for the rest of the period, though
scattered mid to high clouds are likely to continue. Winds will
remain from the southeast, decreasing slightly overnight before
increasing to 10-15 knots by mid to late Monday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  79  61  83 /   0  10  20  20
Hobart OK         62  85  63  90 /  10  20  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  61  85  62  89 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           61  82  61  87 /  40  50  40  10
Ponca City OK     57  80  60  84 /   0  20  20  20
Durant OK         58  82  58  84 /   0   0  10  10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...08

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion