Kawkawlin, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

787
FXUS63 KDTX 242242
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
642 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible Thursday, although
coverage will be more isolated.
-Becoming drier Friday and through the weekend with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Satellite data confirm model solutions in the depiction of a push of
mid level dry air this evening. This will result in a decrease in
the showers ongoing across portions of the area. The mid level dry
air advection with the forecast development of a shallow low level
inversion and ample low level moisture will lead to the development
of low stratus and fog late this evening into the overnight. Much of
the guidance is suggestive of IFR and LIFR conditions. There is
indication in both NAM and RAP soundings that the development of a
light northerly wind field in the boundary layer toward 12Z Thurs
will support some improvement in conditions to VFR.
For DTW/D21 Convection...Any lingering convection across the
airspace this evening will remain isolated.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and Thursday.
* Low for cigs/vsby to fall below 200 ft and/or 1/2SM Thursday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
DISCUSSION...
Forecast through the rest of today remains focused on meandering
vicinity low pressure, nestled beneath a departing area of upper
level divergence. This pairing led to impressive rainfall rates
through the diurnal minimum across portions of the southern four
counties. Further northwest, deformation forcing continues to spur
additional showers as the primary mid/upper level circulation
(presenting well via GOES vapor channels) makes little progress over
northern Lower Michigan. Confidence is lacking this evening
regarding coverage of late day convection as deep-layer saturation
hangs on. Lapse rates still appear underwhelming (less than 6 C/km)
which leans toward heavy rainfall as the element of main concern,
should any potent updrafts materialize. 24.12Z KDTX RAOB sampled a
PWAT of 1.42 inches, although some mid-level drying is underway
amidst sustained southwest flow aloft. Latest radar presentation and
CAMs imply isolated to scattered coverage of showers with occasional
embedded thunderstorm structures before nocturnal drying and
stabilization attempts to fill in. Still can`t completely rule out a
few stray showers overnight, moreso for The Thumb where Chance PoPs
(30 percent) have been highlighted.
Skies start out socked-in with lake-modified stratus Thursday as the
muggy airmass lingers. It could take until the afternoon hours for
boundary-layer mixing depths to improve and meaningfully reduce the
cloud fraction. Added mentions for patchy fog through the mid-
morning hours given weak surface gradient flow and dewpoints in the
low-mid 60s. Unsettled conditions could persist for part of the day
as the orphaned low starts to dislodge eastward. This comes in
response to a progressive northern stream shortwave trough shearing
out the longwave ridge axis over western CONUS while an embedded
subtropical jet speed max ejects northeastward across the Ohio
Valley. While the resident system should still overlap Southeast
Michigan through the early evening hours, showers are expected be
more isolated to widely scattered on Thursday as gradual drying
processes unfold. This also caps max rainfall rates to less than a
quarter inch per hour. Seasonable again temperature-wise, with highs
in the low to mid 70s.
Height rises build in Thursday night and Friday morning with initial
hints of ridging, thus favoring a mainly dry forecast. The one
caveat will be a weak mid-level impulse crossing The Straits. A
minor surface reflection is evident in the progs, in addition to a
descending cold frontal boundary. This front gets hung up somewhere
over north-central Lower, but any southward extension of this
feature should be confined to the far northern portions of the Tri-
Cities and Thumb regions. Otherwise, thicknesses begin to trend
upward as thermal moderation gets underway. Longwave pattern settles
into an Omega Block for the weekend with the local area on the
eastern edge with increasing column stability. Ensembles support a
mainly dry forecast into the first half of next week given the setup
while temperatures maximize some 5-10F above seasonal normals.
MARINE...
The central Great Lakes continue to reside under an upper level low
pressure system this evening through Thursday. Greatest shower
coverage with scattered embedded thunderstorms occurs this afternoon
into early tonight before gradually waning over the course of
Thursday as the low slow begins to push east. Overall risk of severe
weather is low but an isolated storm may produce a gust near 35
knots or small hail. Northeasterly winds this evening steadily veer
more northerly going into Thursday while maintaining similar
magnitude speeds around 10-15kts. Low fully peels away by late
Thursday allowing weak high pressure to build in from the northern
Plains. A weak cold front on preceding the edge of the edge of the
high offers a low chance to see a few spotty showers Friday morning-
afternoon, otherwise drier weather takes holds for the weekend.
HYDROLOGY...
Isolated to scattered coverage of possible slow moving afternoon and
evening storms will lead to additional opportunities for heavy
downpours until early tonight. A Flood Watch remains in effect for
Metro Detroit to account for potential localized flooding of urban,
low-lying, and poor draining areas, should addition showers and
storms materialize. Overall confidence in additional heavy rainfall
coverage and location remains low. Rainfall could exceed and inch
per hour with a few stronger cells.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......KDK
HYDROLOGY....KGK
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion