Keene Summit, California Weather Forecast Discussion

102
FXUS66 KEKA 060618
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1118 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Much warmer than normal conditions will continue Monday
especially along the coast where highs could reach the mid 70s. More
marine influence will gradually return through the week with light
rain potential by this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Over the past 24 hours, broad high
pressure has generally come to dominate over the area. This has
allowed for clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures to
return to the interior such conditions will continue Monday with
highs most likely in the mid 80s for many interior valleys. A cutoff
low off the Central California coast will promote generally offshore
wind, helping bring warm temperatures even to the immediate coast.
Highs will most likely hit the mid 70s Monday afternoon even in
Eureka and Crescent City.
A weak trough will gradually dip across the eastern Pacific through
the week. As early as Tuesday, this will turn wind back onshore,
bringing a cool, diurnal marine layer back to the coast. By
Wednesday, this trough will help break high pressure in the interior
and generally cool conditions back into the mid and upper 70s.
The trough moving onshore late in the week will bring the potential
for light rain, especially for the immediate North Coast. Exact rain
amounts are very uncertain, but generally skew towards the low end.
Most deterministic models show the trough pulling up only very minor
moisture form the south with precipitable water struggling to get
much over 0.8 inches at most. NBM has only a 50 to 60% chance of
light wetting rain along the coast between Friday and Saturday.
There do remain, however, a few higher end solutions that show rain
over 1 inch but also a large number of solution (40%) which show
essentially no rain. Regardless of rain amounts, conditions will be
cooler and more moist with thick midlevel clouds. Cold air on the
back end of the trough combined with increasingly short days will
likely bring some of the first chances of Frost by the end of the
weekend. /JHW
&&
.AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...Few clouds are visible on satellite
tonight, with stratus only visible off the Mendocino coast.
Occasionally low visibilities have been observed at CEC, likely in
the form of haze or ground fog, with minimal impacts expected.
Offshore flow aloft is likely to keep skies mostly clear tonight,
with low probabilities for any stratus formation. Winds are
forecast to be light across the area for the next 24 hours. JB
&&
.MARINE...Northerly winds and steep wind waves continue to ease.
Steep wind waves will dip below 7 ft by Monday afternoon. Light
winds are forecast to continue through the day Monday, but some
isolated spots of breezy east wind are possible nearshore in
channeled terrain. Northerly winds will then begin trending stronger
Tuesday night through Wednesday. There is currently a low chance
(25%) for wind gusts over 30kt for the outer waters on Wednesday,
but these winds may be strong enough to be hazardous to small
crafts. JB/JJW
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

NWS EKA Office Area Forecast Discussion