126 FXUS63 KPAH 141123 AFDPAHArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 623 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures today through Wednesday will be 7 to 10+ degrees above normal in the middle to upper 90s.
- Lower humidity levels will keep heat indices close to the actual temperatures.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms are possible this afternoon into tonight. More rain chances are possible late this week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
An upper level ridge axis remains directly overhead the middle of the country this morning. Upper level troughing is pivoting across the Rockies and additional troughing also exists across the East Coast. A weak frontal boundary is draped from the northern plains into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures are running in the mid 60s to lower 70s with a nearly calm wind. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm over the next couple of hours over our far eastern zones. Upper level ridging dominates the region today leading to another hot day with highs in the 90s, warmer in the west where upper 90s are forecast. Models continue to suggest development of convection late this afternoon into the evening within an environment that is marginally moist and unstable. Coverage should be isolated to widely scattered at best.
Monday onward we see the upper trough moving off the Rockies and lifting into the northern plains. This tilts the upper ridge a bit northeast but continues to keep the ridge axis nearly directly overhead. Continued hot conditions will persist into Wednesday with highs into the low to mid 90s. Dry weather is likely for this period with upper level ridging dominating. Low humidity will keep heat indices near the actual temperatures. Beyond Wednesday guidance begins to diverge a bit, but continues to show increased troughing for the late week and into the weekend. This will favor cooler temperatures and rain chances returning with 20-40% chances Thursday into Friday, and lingering slight chances into Saturday.
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.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Expecting a VFR forecast next 24 hours. SCT cigs around 7kft will develop late this morning into the afternoon. Guidance shows isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA developing late this afternoon and into the evening. Continued with PROB30 groups for CGI and PAH for the potential for this activity. Winds will remain light, less than 5 knots through the period.
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.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
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DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...AD
NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion