Key Colony Beach, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

734
FXUS62 KKEY 040835
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
435 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms have been moving
across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters for the
majority of the overnight. We are starting to see a decline in
activity but the KAMX radar shows more upstream near the Bahamas.
While we have seen a flurry of precipitation overnight, rainfall
totals for the island chain are generally one to two-tenths of an
inch. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure located near the
central and northwestern Bahamas has not moved since developing
yesterday. This feature continues to weaken the southwestern
flank of a broad high pressure that is anchored over the eastern
half of the U.S. In turn, this has resulted in a gradual
slackening of winds.
.FORECAST...
The aforementioned area of low pressure near the Bahamas is
expected to drift west-northwestward across the northwestern
Bahamas and toward southern Florida during the next couple of
days. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant
development of the low. Meanwhile, the stationary boundary it
developed along will hold in place through the upcoming weekend.
All of this to say, we are still expecting an active period of
weather for the Florida Keys.
As this features lifts northwest of the Keys by Monday, high
pressure that remains anchored along the eastern half of the U.S.
will fill back in. This will result in freshening northeast to
east breezes. Meanwhile, the stationary boundary will attempt to
lift north of the Florida Keys but get shoved back across the
island chain as the high builds in. This will keep the boundary
and moisture in place through next week. When combined with the
moderate to fresh breezes, convergence zones will likely develop
at times and promote shower and thunderstorm development.
Therefore, will keep generally above normal rain chances through
the forecast period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 435 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
A weak area of low pressure located near the central
and northwestern Bahamas will act to weaken the pressure gradient
briefly across the Florida Keys this weekend. This will result in
slackening breezes veering from the northeast to the southeast
today through Sunday. This system is expected to drift west-
northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas and toward southern
Florida during the next couple of days. As it lifts north and
northwest of the Keys, high pressure across the Atlantic will
build back in resulting in freshening northeast to east breezes.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 435 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
The active pattern remains in place this weekend across the Keys.
VFR conditions are mostly expected through the TAF package. Latest
radar imagery shows isolated showers mainly offshore from the EYW
terminal with this activity expected to wane by 04/09z. Latest
guidance suggests more shower and thunderstorm activity throughout
the day and tonight, however, the timing and placement of any
activity is low confidence. VCSH was left out of the TAF after
04/09z as a result. Any shower or thunderstorm will be capable of
producing blinding downpours reducing VIS and CIGs, gusty winds, and
potential for lightning. Near surface winds will be northeast to
east between 5 to 12 knots.
&&
.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1933, a Hurricane moved
northeast off of Cuba through the Straits, passing about 30 miles
offshore Key Largo. Little significant damage was reported. Key West
recorded 13.54" of rain (a record for the date as well as the
wettest day ever recorded in October and the third-wettest day ever
in Key West. Rainfall data for Key West dates back to 1871.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  88  79  88  79 /  60  40  30  30
Marathon  86  78  87  79 /  60  30  30  30
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....MJV
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion