Kirkman, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

750
FXUS63 KOAX 131029
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
529 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hotter today with highs reaching the lower 90s this afternoon.
  A bit cooler Sunday through Tuesday, with highs in the 80s.
- Mostly dry conditions expected through today. Shower and storm
  chances return Sunday morning into next week, with the
  highest chances Sunday afternoon and evening (40-60%), and
  Tuesday night (50-70%). A few storms could be strong to
  severe with large hail and gusty winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Today...
Quiet weather prevailed overnight, with mostly clear skies. By 2 AM
temperatures remained warm, in the low to mid 70s. Southwesterly
winds blew around 5 to 15 mph with occasional gusts up to 25 mph.
A thermal ridge will become centered over the forecast area today,
potentially bringing us the warmest day left between now and the end
of the year. Highs are expected to reach into the low 90s today,
with a stout southerly winds driving warm air into the region.
Appropriately, September 13th is also the average last day in the
90s at Omaha over the period of record. Dewpoints in the 60-70
degree range will hold heat indices in the in the low to mid 90s.
Sunday...
The thermal ridge will be shunted to the east, as a trough
approaches from the west. This will knock Sundays highs down
slightly, into the mid to upper 80s. Precipitation will begin to
edge into the western fringes of the forecast area by Sunday
afternoon, ahead of the approaching low. Cloud cover ahead of this
system could dampen the potential for strong instability Sunday
afternoon and evening. That being said, bulk shear vectors of 30-45
kts could sustain a few stronger updrafts, if breaks in the cloud
cover allow for more potent MLCAPE to develop. Large hail and strong
wind gusts would likely be the primary threats underneath the any
stronger cells.
Sunday night and Beyond...
Storm coverage should quickly diminish as daytime heating wanes,
Sunday night. Temperatures will be slow to dip behind the departing
system, Monday and Tuesday, as warm southwesterly flow prevails over
the region. Highs are forecast to remain above normal, in the mid
80s, both days.
The next push of shortwave energy arrives Tuesday into Wednesday.
Warm advection could produce some showers and storms ahead of an
approaching cold front Tuesday, with more showers and storms
possible along the front as it passes through the forecast area on
Wednesday. A few of these storms could become strong to severe,
however current model trends show generally weak shear across the
region. Additionally, periodic shower activity through the day could
again dampen instability. A series of vort maxes rotating around the
upper low lingering over the Dakotas will maintain on and off
precipitation chances into Thursday.
Highs will dip into the 70s with the frontal passage Wednesday, and
likely remain there through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the period. LLWS will wind
down by 15Z, while southerly winds near the surface will
increase to over 12 kts, with occasional gusts up to 20 to 25
kts possible. Winds diminish by around 00Z this evening.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion