Kitty Hawk, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

444
FXUS62 KMHX 081856
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
256 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north with a front stalled
offshore early this week. A shortwave moves across the area
with a surface low lifting along a stalled front offshore mid-
week bringing heavy rain chances along the coast. High pressure
builds in again for the end of the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Windy but quiet conditions will continue for
the rest of the day with a stalled front offshore and strong
high pressure building in from the north. While cloudy
conditions remain along the coast and OBX, skies have remained
mostly clear across the coastal plain and temperatures have
risen into the low 80s, while mid 70s hold on across the coast.
Wind gusts of 20-30 mph will continue through sunset inland,
with 30-35 mph wind gusts possible along the coast.
Tonight, more of the same is expected with slightly less windy
conditions. Clouds should stick around along the coast, while
the coastal plain remains mostly clear. Despite this temps will
drop into the low 60s inland aided by CAA, but remain in the
upper 60s to low 70s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Mon...A stalled front will remain off the NC coast
tomorrow, and along the front a weak low will form east of the
Outer Banks. This will shift the flow to be more northerly, and
the added upper level shortwave energy should make for a
cloudier, but still mostly dry day. A few isolated showers could
move onshore across the Outer and Inner Banks late in the day as
the front wobbles closer to the shore, but areas farther inland
will remain dry. With greater cloud cover expected, temperatures
should be a few degrees cooler than today, and remain mostly in
the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...
Key Messages
- Cooler, drier conditions this week
- Coastal trough lingers, best chances of rain Tue and Wed
   along OBX
- Dry end to the week as high pressure builds again
Front remains stalled along the Gulf Stream through the long
term. NE flow behind the front as high pressure over the NE
builds into the region, bringing a stretch of drier, and cooler
conditions inland. A slightly stronger shortwave looks to move
through along the coastal trough Tuesday into Wednesday. This
will bring the best chances of showers reaching the coast,
especially OBX where PoPs are highest. After the shortwave moves
through, original high pressure over the NE gets pushed towards
the Canadian Maritimes, and a second high builds in from the
Great Lakes region. some indications of a weak low forming
along the stalled front/coastal trough off the FL/GA/SC coast
this coming weekend into early next week as a deep positively
tilted trough moves through. It is too soon to tell what
impacts, if any, are expected with very low confidence on the
timing, track, and intensity of the low should it form.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Afternoon/...
As of 3 PM Mon...VFR conditions are present across the TAF
sites, while along the coast MVFR ceilings linger with a stalled
front just offshore. Conditions will change minimally through
early tonight with VFR expected inland, and MVFR continuing
along the immediate coast. Conditions may briefly improve along
the coast overnight as low clouds temporarily clear out, with
VFR and mostly clear skies inland. By tomorrow morning low
clouds will again plague the coast, and may spread to the
coastal plain by late tomorrow morning. Ceilings should be at
VFR levels here between 3000-5000 ft, but MVFR ceilings are
likely along the immediate coast and OBX for most of tomorrow.
Strong NE winds (20-30 kts) this afternoon and evening will
subside overnight, but then restrengthen tomorrow to 15-25 kts.
LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Low stratus possible as northerly flow may
result in a cold air damming regime along the coastal plain this
coming week. Tuesday into Wednesday rain chances with drops in
cig and vis pick up along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Hazardous boating conditions will continue
through tomorrow as strong NE winds persist across the coastal
waters behind a cold front. Winds the rest of today will be NE
20-30 kts with some gusts approaching gale force. This evening
and early tonight winds may increase a few knots further, and a
short period of frequent Gale Force gusts are possible for
portions of the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. However,
confidence is not high enough on this occuring and for a
significant duration, so will leave strongly worded SCAs for
now. Later tonight after midnight, winds will begin to subside
and shift to the NNE at 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Tomorrow
winds should remain nearly steady, but could briefly subside
slightly as low pressure forms offshore along the stalled front.
Seas are currently 6-10 ft and will continue to build even
higher tonight to 7-12 ft. Seas will subside slightly tomorrow
but remain 5-9 ft.
LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Monday...
Key Messages:
- Prolonged period of SCA conditions likely to continue into
  Tuesday night
- Winds fall below 25kts Wednesday, but near Small Craft
  Advisory conditions continue through the remainder of the work
  week
- Another chance for SCA conditions late this week
Seas abate as winds ease late Tuesday into Wednesday, with
southern waters (Onslow Bay) first to see sub 6ft seas as early
as Tuesday night. Even as these winds lessen, they will be
15-25kt out of the NE through the workweek. Tuesday into
Wednesday shortwave moves through along a lingering coastal
trough, increasing precip chances for areas along the coast and
coastal waters.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 PM Mon...The combination of persistent (but sub-gale)
northeast winds, and higher than normal astronomical tides will
produce elevated waters levels today through most of the work
week. Depending on wind and tide fluctuations water levels will
likely be a few feet above normal, and as much as 1 to 2 feet
AGL (above ground level). The highest water levels are expected
along the southern Pamlico Sound and adjacent tidal rivers and
creeks, as well as across Core and Bogue Sounds. Higher water
levels are also expected oceanside, especially north of Cape
Hatteras, and should be limited to minor beach and dune erosion,
but minor ocean overwash can`t be ruled out given the still
weakened state of many dune structures across Dare County.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-230-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SGK/RJ
MARINE...SGK/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion