Krebs, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

668
FXUS64 KTSA 231747
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1247 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- The threat for severe thunderstorms will increase by mid
    afternoon across much of eastern Oklahoma and western
    Arkansas, including a threat for very large hail, tornadoes
    and damaging winds. The threat will diminish by early
    Wednesday morning.
- Heavy rainfall potential will continue through early
    Wednesday morning, with a threat for localized flooding across
    most of the area.
- Temperatures drop below normal mid week, rising back above
    normal by early next week with dry conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Severe weather and flooding threats through early Wednesday
morning dominate the weather concerns for this forecast. Showers
and thunderstorms persist across northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas at midday, with the heavy rainfall so far
having focused in this same area. Radar estimates a solid area of
1 to 2 inch amounts with highly localized totals around 3 inches
in Benton and Carroll counties. Cloud tops have begun to cool once
again with the ongoing activity near the Kansas and Missouri
border that has been moving to the south and east on the nose of
the low level jet and will largely pose a continued heavy rain
threat before moving out within the next couple of hours.
Development is ongoing in the vicinity of the cold front, as far
southwest as the OKC metro, with this boundary increasingly
becoming the focus for thunderstorms during the remainder of the
afternoon and evening. CAMs continue to perform reasonably well
with timing and evolution with what has occurred in the past 12
hours or so, including the aforementioned rejuvenation ongoing in
northwest Arkansas. While the threat will begin in northeast
Oklahoma and parts of northwest Arkansas, it will shift
southeastward with time into the late evening hours before
diminishing after midnight.
Very high instability is already present across most of the area
roughly along and to the south of Highway 412 with lower values to
the north due to the ongoing and persistent cloud cover and
showers/storms to the north of a quasi-stationary boundary. Low
level shear parameters continue to focus across parts of far
northeast and east central Oklahoma and into western Arkansas,
with the northern edge of the main resulting tornado threat marked
by the aforementioned boundary. With time, there should be an
evolution toward a more linear mode, especially into the evening
hours.
Toward midnight and into early Wednesday morning, more elevated
storm development may occur, featuring a low but nonzero severe
weather potential.
The Flood Watch has been trimmed across northeast Oklahoma, with
the bulk of the remaining heavy rain focused across far eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Precipitable water values around 2
inches are centered in northeast Oklahoma and into northwest
Arkansas, which is approaching the seasonal maximum.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The front should have cleared the area by daybreak Wednesday,
although additional showers and thunderstorms are expected until
the main trough axis pushes through the region. Noticeably cooler
temperatures will be on deck for Wednesday and Thursday in the
wake of the front. The eastern edge of the upper level ridge will
expand northeastward into area to close out the work week and open
the upcoming weekend, leading to dry weather and a gradual
increase in temperatures, especially during the daytime. Into next
week, the area will largely remain between weather systems,
increasing the likelihood of a fairly prolonged period of less
active weather than we are currently experiencing.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact E OK and NW AR
sites today, providing a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions. The most
impactful storms are expected to develop along a front from mid
afternoon through late evening, with impacts initially focused
across NE OK and NW AR sites. Storms will move south with time,
eventually affecting KMLC and KFSM by late afternoon/ evening.
These storms may be severe and produce very strong winds and hail.
Following the front and associated precip, IFR cigs are forecast
to develop for most locations overnight. Additionally, guidance
suggests a period of significantly reduced vsbys in NW AR, with
the highest probability between 08-12z. Conditions gradually
improve tomorrow morning, but with IFR and MVFR cigs remaining
until early afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  77  60  79 /  30  30  10   0
FSM   70  80  64  81 /  80  20  10  10
MLC   66  79  60  79 /  70  20   0  10
BVO   63  74  56  78 /  20  40  10   0
FYV   64  76  57  77 /  80  30  20  10
BYV   66  76  59  76 /  80  40  30  20
MKO   66  78  60  78 /  60  20  10  10
MIO   65  74  58  77 /  50  50  20  10
F10   64  79  59  78 /  50  20   0   0
HHW   69  79  61  78 /  70  30   0  10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ056>058-060>063-
     065>072-074-076.
AR...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion